Month: December 2024

Outlook 2025–Key Issues to Shape Apparel Sourcing and Trade

In December 2024, Just-Style consulted a panel of industry experts and scholars in its Shape of apparel sourcing in 2025 briefing. Below is my contribution to the report. Welcome any comments and suggestions!

What’s next for apparel sourcing

Although the world economy is predicted to grow at a similar pace in 2025 from 2024, the slowing US and Chinese economies could impose new challenges to apparel sourcing, from weakened demand to intensified price competition.

Regarding the macroeconomic environment in 2025, which “sets the tone” for apparel sourcing, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank estimated that the world economy would grow by approximately 2.7-3.2 percent in 2025, with almost no change from the previous year. Similarly, the World Trade Organization (WTO) projected that world merchandise trade would increase by 3.3 percent in 2025, slightly higher than 2.6 percent in 2024.

Despite this incremental improvement, the world’s two largest economies–the US (with 2.2 percent GDP growth in 2025, down from 2.8 in 2024 and 2.9 in 2023) and China (with 4.5 percent GDP growth in 2025, down from 4.8 in 2024 and 5.2 in 2023) are expected to experience slower economic growth in the new year ahead. This slowdown means that apparel producers around the world, particularly those developing countries making large-volume basic items, will likely continue to struggle with a shortage of souring orders in 2025 due to overall weak import demand.

Even more concerning, as China grapples with declining domestic sales, the world clothing market could see an additional influx of low-cost Chinese products, especially through new e-commerce channels. Notably, less than half of China’s clothing production is exported, indicating its significant untapped export capacity. Furthermore, while China’s wage levels are higher than those in many other Asian apparel-producing countries, the unit price of U.S. apparel imports from China measured in dollar per square meter equivalent ($/SME) dropped by more than 21% between 2018 and 2024 (up to October). In contrast, U.S. apparel import prices from the rest of the world increased by 7.8% over the same period. Related to this, what is often overlooked is that even Shein, the “ultra-fast fashion” retailer known for its exceptionally competitive pricing, deliberately opted out of the vast Chinese market due to concerns about the intense price competition there. In other words, disregarding the new Trump tariff, 2025 could see an escalation of trade tensions targeting Chinese products in the US market and beyond.

Meanwhile, due to concerns about rising geopolitical tensions worldwide and trade policy uncertainty during Trump’s second term, fashion companies will likely continue to leverage sourcing diversification to mitigate risks. However, the “reducing China exposure” and sourcing diversification movement has yet to substantially benefit near-shoring or emerging sourcing destinations such as the Western Hemisphere and Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). This result was mainly because fashion companies utilized China to source a wide range of various products, whereas Western Hemisphere and SSA suppliers can only produce a few basic categories.

For example, my latest studies show that in the first nine months of 2024, even excluding major platforms like Shein, Amazon, and Temu, US fashion companies sourced more than 60K Stock Keeping Units (SKUs) of clothing items from China. In comparison, India and Vietnam each supplied approximately 15K SKUs, Cambodia and Bangladesh each contributed 3,000 SKUs, Mexico provided only 2K SKUs, and CAFTA-DR and AGOA member countries supplied around 200 SKUs each. Therefore, even if fashion companies report sourcing from more countries, they are likely to stay sourcing from more Asian countries with closer export capacity and structure to China. Meanwhile, the total value or volume of trade may not fully capture the whole picture of sourcing diversification. This trend may persist in 2025, even with new tariff escalations.

Apparel industry challenges and opportunities

Today’s fashion business is highly global and relies heavily on the frequent movement of goods and services across borders. Thus, the uncertain and protectionist nature of U.S. trade policy during Trump’s second term could present significant challenges to the fashion industry in 2025. Of particular concern is that Trump’s new tariff actions would raise fashion companies’ sourcing costs, create additional inflationary pressure, reduce US consumers’ purchasing power on clothing, and trigger retaliatory trade measures from U.S. trading partners, ultimately hurting the U.S. economy. Notably, when the 7.5% Section 301 tariff was imposed on selected Chinese clothing products in 2018, the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) growth was relatively low at 1.9%. However, imposing a 20% global tariff, a 60% tariff on Chinese products, and the existing 15%-30% regular tariff on clothing when the CPI is historically high is like “adding fuel to the fire.”

Besides tariffs, in 2025, if not sooner, U.S. fashion companies and many e-commerce suppliers worldwide will closely watch how Congress and the new Trump administration reform the de minimis rule, which currently exempts small-value shipments under $800 from tariffs and most customs procedures.  With Trump’s new tariffs looming, some argue that closing the de minimis “loophole” has become even more urgent, as it creates more financial incentives to use the rule to bypass the tariff increase. Meanwhile, proposals under consideration suggest removing textile and apparel products entirely from de minimis, a move that could be an “earthquake” for those fashion companies utilizing the rule heavily.

Trump’s approach and philosophy toward conventional trade agreements and trade preference programs in 2025 also deserve attention. During his first term, Trump launched a few bilateral trade negotiations, from the one with the United Kingdom and Japan to Kenya. Back then, Trump saw a bilateral agreement would give the U.S. more leverage for a better “deal.” Specifically related to apparel sourcing and trade, two flagship U.S. trade preference programs–the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) and the Haiti HOPE/HELP Act, will expire in September 2025. It remains uncertain whether the new Trump administration will support the early renewal of these two trade preference programs with minimal changes or prefer to renegotiate them and add new bilateral elements.

Additionally, even though the new Trump administration may not prioritize addressing climate change, it is an irreversible trend for fashion companies to allocate more resources to comply with upcoming or newly implemented sustainability and environmental-related legislation, whether from the EU or the US state level. Unlike in the past, when being more sustainable only meant adding operational costs or paying a “one-time fee,” today’s new generation of sustainability-focused regulations—such as Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR)—requires companies to shift their mindset and demonstrate continuous improvement. Interestingly, my recent study tracking apparel products’ sustainability claims shows that vague terms like “sustainable” and “eco-friendly” are gradually being replaced by more neutral, fact-based keywords such as “regenerative,” “textile waste,” and “low impact.”

Meanwhile, offering “sustainable” apparel products and those using “preferred sustainable fibers” could provide fashion companies new opportunities to diversify their sourcing base and expand their vendor networks. For example, studies show that in the U.S. market, China and many other Asian countries are not necessarily the top suppliers of clothing made with recycled materials. Instead, Europe and countries in the Western Hemisphere or even Africa present unique sourcing advantages and capacities due to the unique nature of such products. Therefore, in 2025, we can expect an ever-closer collaboration between design, product development, merchandising, sourcing, and legal teams within fashion companies, working together to meet the growing demand for sustainable apparel and ensure compliance with evolving regulations.

by Sheng Lu

New Study: Exploring India as an Apparel Sourcing Base for U.S. Fashion Companies

The full article is published in Just-Style and below is the summary:

India’s Textiles and Apparel Production

Data from the United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO) shows that India produced around $76.5 billion in textiles and $26.64 billion in wearing apparel in 2022. Although still smaller than China’s, this production scale has already surpassed that of most other Asian countries, including Vietnam. Behind these numbers were India’s over 4,000 ginning factories, 3,500 textile mills, and around 45 million workers directly employed by the textile and apparel sector.

India is one of the world’s largest textile fiber producers, including regular cotton, organic cotton, silk, polyester, and viscose. India also has more advanced local textile manufacturing capabilities than most other developing apparel-exporting Asian countries, allowing it to benefit from a vertically integrated local textile and apparel supply chain. A recent U.S. International Trade Commission (USITC) study noted that more than 90 percent of India’s textile raw materials needed for its apparel production can be sourced domestically. In comparison, as the World Trade Organization (WTO) global value chain analysis estimated, more than 64 percent of Vietnam’s apparel exports in 2022 contained foreign-made content (i.e., imported yarns and fabrics), 57 percent for Cambodia, 49 percent for Indonesia, and 33 percent for Bangladesh.

India’s Apparel Export

India remained a much smaller apparel exporter than China, Vietnam, and Bangladesh. According to the World Trade Organization (WTO), India exported about $15 billion in apparel in 2023, ranked the world’s sixth largestor 2.8 percent of the global total.  Similarly, in 2023, India accounted for 5.5 percent of U.S. apparel imports and 3.5 percent of the EU, showing its position as a significant supplier but not among the largest. However, unlike most other developing Asian countries, India exports less than half of its apparel output due to its massive domestic market with a population of 1.43 billion. This implies that India’s substantial untapped apparel export potential should not be ignored.

Why Sourcing from India?

Firstly, aligned with trade statistics, many U.S. fashion companies already source from India, although in a relatively small volume.  For example, the USFIA benchmarking survey respondents consistently ranked India as the 3rd or 4th most utilized apparel sourcing base from 2021 to 2024, after China and Vietnam. However, U.S. fashion companies typically place less than 10 percent of their total sourcing value or volume in India. The recent USITC study also raised concerns that India’s apparel factories were primarily small and medium-sized, which could limit their ability to fulfill large-volume sourcing orders.

Secondly, “Made in India” clothing is not necessarily cheap but could be perceived as “worth the value.” Notably, from January to October 2024, clothing labeled “Made in India” sold in the U.S. retail market was, on average, priced much higher than imports from Bangladesh and Vietnam, particularly in the mass market segment. Meanwhile, in the premium market segment, clothing “Made in India” was, on average, priced relatively lower than “Made in China,” such as dresses, tops, and bottoms. These results suggest that U.S. fashion companies do not typically consider India a preferred sourcing base for basic and price-sensitive items. Instead, India may be seen as a more cost-effective alternative to China for high-quality, value-added clothing.

Thirdly, India has been strengthening its competitiveness in export flexibility and agility, enabling its vendors to quickly adjust the delivery, volume, and product of the sourcing order upon customers’ requests. In the latest 2024 USFIA survey, respondents rated India’s sourcing flexibility and agility second only to China, surpassing Bangladesh, Cambodia, and Central American countries. Likewise, India was regarded as one of the few Asian countries that could fulfill apparel sourcing orders with relatively low “minimum order quantity (MOQ)” requirements.

One major factor contributing to India’s perceived advantages in sourcing flexibility and agility is its ability to produce a wide range of apparel products. For example, the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) calculated using trade data at the 6-digit HS code level indicates that U.S. apparel imports from India cover more diverse product categories than most Asian countries.

Moreover, due to India’s position as one of the world’s leading cotton producers, in the first ten months of 2024, nearly 60 percent of U.S. apparel imports from India contained cotton fibers, including 13 percent using organic cotton. This percentage was much higher than imports from other Asian suppliers such as China and Vietnam. In comparison, over the same period, U.S. apparel imports from India appear less likely to contain man-made fibers like polyester, nylon, spandex, and recycled polyester. This fiber composition explains why India has yet to become a leading supplier of certain apparel product categories, like outerwear, which more commonly uses man-made fiber than cotton.

Additionally, in the first ten months of 2024, over 45 percent of India’s apparel newly introduced to the U.S. market targeted the luxury and premium segment, closely matching China’s nearly 50 percent and exceeding other Asian suppliers such as Vietnam (20 percent), Bangladesh (13 percent), Cambodia (5 percent), and Indonesia (18 percent). This result explains why U.S. fashion companies increasingly consider India a strategic alternative to sourcing from China, given the similarities in their product offerings.

Reflections

India’s large country size and population, the presence of an already highly integrated and sophisticated textile and apparel supply chain, and its ability to make a great variety of high-quality products suitable for various market segments position it well in the export competition. U.S. fashion companies’ eagerness to reduce sourcing from China due to rising geopolitical concerns and the limited sourcing capacity elsewhere created historical opportunities for India to expand its apparel exports to the U.S. market further.

Nevertheless, it remains a question mark whether India is fully committed to expanding labor-intensive apparel production and exports, given the country’s economy is moving toward more capital and technology-intensive sectors. Notably, in value, apparel only accounted for about 5.6 percent of India’s total merchandise exports in 2023, similar to China’s 5.3 percent but much lower than other lesser-developed Asian countries, including Vietnam (10 percent), Bangladesh (88 percent), and Cambodia (44 percent).

Moreover, while India is not a primary focus for compliance issues like forced labor, sourcing from the country still carries general social and environmental compliance risks similar to those in most developing countries (note: see the 2024 USITC report). It remains to be seen whether India’s textile and apparel mills are technically and financially prepared to meet more stringent social and environmental standards being adopted in the U.S. and can effectively compete in the growing market for “sustainable apparel.”

by Gabriella Giolli (Honors Marketing major & Fashion management minor, University of Delaware) and Sheng Lu