Following the steps of many countries in history, China is gradually shifting its role in the world textile and apparel supply chain. While China unshakably remains the world’s largest apparel exporter, its market shares measured by value fell from 38.6 percent in 2015 to 33.7 percent in 2017. China’s market shares in the world’s top three largest apparel import markets, namely the United States, EU, and Japan, also indicate a clear downward trend in the past five years. This result is consistent with several recent survey studies, which find that fashion brands and retailers are actively seeking alternative apparel sourcing bases to China. Indeed, no country, including China, can forever keep its comparative advantage in making labor-intensive garments when its economy becomes more industrialized and advanced.
However, it is also important to recognize that China is playing an increasingly important role as a textile supplier for apparel-exporting countries in Asia. For example, measured by value, 47 percent of Bangladesh’s textile imports came from China in 2017, up from 39 percent in 2005. We observe similar trends in Cambodia (up from 30 percent to 65 percent), Vietnam (up from 23 percent to 50 percent), Pakistan (up from 32 percent to 71 percent), Malaysia (up from 25 percent to 54 percent), Indonesia (up from 28 percent to 46 percent), Philippines (up from 19 percent to 41 percent) and Sri Lanka (up from 15 percent to 39 percent) over the same time frame.
So maybe the right question to ask in the future is: how much value of “Made in China” actually contains in Asian countries’ apparel exports to the world?
A fact-checking review of trade statistics in 2017 of a total 167 categories of textile and apparel (T&A) products categorized by the Office of Textiles and Apparel (OTEXA) suggests that T&A products “Made in China” still have no near competitors in the U.S. import market. Specifically, in 2017:
Of the total 11 categories of yarn, China was the top supplier for 3 categories (or 27.3%);
Of the total 34 categories of fabric, China was the top supplier for 26 categories (or 76.5%);
Of the total 106 categories of apparel, China was the top supplier for 87 categories (or 82.1%);
Of the total 16 categories of made-up textiles, China was the top supplier for 11 categories (or 68.8%);
In comparison, for those Asian T&A suppliers regarded as China’s top competitors:
Vietnam was the top supplier for only 5 categories of apparel (less than 5% of the total);
Bangladesh was the top supplier for only 2 categories of apparel (less than 2% of the total)
India was the top supplier for 1 category of fabric (2.9% of the total), 1 category of apparel (1% of the total) and 5 categories of made-up textiles (41.7% of the total)
Notably, China not only was the top supplier for many T&A products but also held a lion’s market shares. For example, in 2017:
For the 26 categories of fabric that China was the top supplier, China’s average market shares reached 40.5%, 22 percentage points higher than the 2nd top suppliers for these categories
For the 87 categories of apparel that China was the top supplier, China’s average market shares reached 52.4%, 36 percentage points higher than the 2nd top suppliers for these categories.
For the 11 categories of made-up textiles that China was the top supplier, China’s average market shares reached 58%, 43 percentage points higher than the 2nd top suppliers for these categories.
Furthermore, T&A “Made in China” are demonstrating even bigger price competitiveness compared to other suppliers in the U.S. market. For example, in 2017, the unit price of apparel “Made China” was only 74% of the price of “Made in Vietnam” (in 2015 was 80%), 86% of “Made in Bangladesh” (in 2015 was 93%), 85% of “Made in Mexico” (in 2015 was 90%) and 86% of products by members of CAFTA-DR (in 2012 was 98%).
Last but not least, the U.S.-China tariff war apparently has NOT affected China’s textile and apparel exports to the United States significantly. From January to August this year, China’s apparel exports to the U.S. declined by 1% in value and 0.3% in quantity from a year earlier, but China’s textile exports to the U.S. increased by 12.3% in value and 7.2% in quantity. China’s market shares in the U.S. market also remains overall stable.
Are the results surprising? How to explain China’s increasing price competitiveness despite its reported rising labor cost? What’s your outlook for the future of China as a sourcing destination for U.S. fashion brands and retailers? Please feel free to share your views.
#1 In 2017, over 75 percent of U.S. apparel imports came from Asia (including around 35 percent from China, 13 percent from Vietnam, and 6 percent from Bangladesh). Based on the readings and our class discussions, why or why not do you think Asia’s market share may continue to rise in the years ahead?
#2 Vietnam is often treated as the “next China” for apparel sourcing. However, some argue that Vietnam’s export potential for apparel could be more limited than we anticipated because of its small population size. What is your evaluation?
#3 It does not seem U.S. companies have a particular role to play in the Asia-based textile and apparel supply chain because of the “flying geese” pattern. What is your view?
#4 If U.S. and China were able to solve the trade dispute by early next year, would sourcing from China become popular again among U.S. fashion brands and apparel retailers? What are the most critical factors that drive China’s competitiveness as an apparel sourcing base in the next five years? Overall, is “Made in China” over?
[For FASH455: 1) Please mention the question number in your comments; 2) Please address at least two questions in your comments]
The $200 billion imports from China targeted include 5,745 full or partial lines of the original 6,031 tariff lines that were on a proposed list of Chinese imports announced on July 10, 2018. Included among the products removed from the original proposed list are certain consumer electronics products such as smart watches and Bluetooth devices; certain chemical inputs for manufactured goods, textiles and agriculture; certain health and safety products such as bicycle helmets, and child safety furniture such as car seats and playpens.
Below are the textile and apparel related products removed from the original proposed list:
However, the final $200 billion product list still covers several textile and apparel-related products such as backpacks, handbags, purses, wallets, baseball gloves, hats and leather, and fur apparel, as well as textiles and machinery that are used for domestic manufacturing. In general, the final $200 billion product list includes about 20% consumer products (v.s. only 1% in the $50 billion already subject to the 25% additional tariff), 50% intermediary goods and 30% capital goods.
(Student fashion show–from College of Fashion and Design at DHU)
To enhance students’ global awareness and facilitate cross-cultural exchange, we are very pleased to have several special guests from the Donghua University (DHU) to answer questions proposed by FASH455 students regarding the fashion education in China. Donghua University (DHU), located in downtown Shanghai and formerly known as the China Textile University, has one of the oldest and most prestigious fashion programs in China.
Luo Wang:a Ph.D. student at the College of Fashion and Design at DHU. Luo received her B.S. in fashion design and engineering from DHU and was an exchange student at the North Carolina State University, College of Textiles.
Caixia Chen: a Ph.D. student at the College of Fashion and Design at DHU. Caixia received her B.S. in fashion design and engineering from DHU as well. Her research interests include fashion marketing and fashion supply chain management.
Zongyu Xiong: an M.S. student in the College of Fashion and Design at DHU. Her research interests include cost management in the fashion supply chain.
Jingjing Wang: a freshman majoring in Fashion Design and Engineering in the College of fashion and design at DHU.
Bai Li: Bai received her B.S. in fashion design and engineering from DHU and M.S. in Fashion and Apparel Studies from UD. Currently, Bai is a Ph.D. student at UD studying functional apparel design and physical therapy.
Question from FASH455: Why do you choose to be a fashion major—personal interest or guaranteed job offer?
Luo Wang:For me, it is personal interest. Both my bachelor and master degrees were in fashion design. I was interested in the development of the luxury apparel market in China. As China’s economy continues to grow, I have been studying the purchasing behaviors of Chinese consumers for apparel as well.
Caixia: Personal interest.
Zongyu:Personal interest is the main reason above all. And I also hope that I can engage in fashion-related jobs in the future.
Jingjing: I choose to be a fashion major because of my personal interest. But my future work may not be in the fashion area.
Bai Li:Both–personal interest in fashion and a kind of guaranteed job offer because of the engineering component of the major.
Question from FASH455: What classes do you take as a fashion major in China?
Luo Wang: At the Donghua University, we have two departments in the College of Fashion and Design. One is fashion design, and the other is apparel engineering. I was a design major. For my undergraduate studies, I have taken Design Introduction, fashion design, pattern making, Apparel Production, and Marketing Management, Apparel Making Basic Techniques，Fashion Illustration，Computer-Aided Fashion Illustration，Apparel Making Techniques，Apparel Accessory Design，Clothing CAD，Apparel Accessory Design.
For my graduate studies, I have taken Branded Fashion Exertion, Fashion Accessories Art Design, Design management, History of Art Design, Branded Fashion Design, Fashion Brand Constitution, Fashion Comments, Western Modern Art, and Western Art Literary Theory.
Actually, the Donghua Universty offers two fashion majors. One is fashion design which focuses on design. The students majored in fashion design are good at drawing. Another one is fashion engineering, which focuses on draping, pattern-making, fashion trade, fashion marketing etc.
Zongyu: Global marketing of clothing, Market research and forecast, Consumer psychology, Clothing Materials, CAD, Fashion Illustration, Clothing craft, Draping, and some theoretical course.
Jingjing: So far I’ve taken clothing marketing and merchandising, garment production management, fashion retail management, etc..
Bai Li: 1) Engineering basic courses: chemistry, physics, electrical and electronic engineering, and C programming, etc. 2) Fashion design courses: pattern making, trend forecasting, draping, clothing materials, etc. 3) Senior thesis and senior collections for the fashion show
Question from FASH455: What is the percentage of fashion majors in your school that receive job offers immediately after finishing their studies?
Caixia:As I know, around 100 fashion engineering majors graduate from the college of fashion and design at DHU every year. Among them, about 50% receive job offers immediately after finishing their studies, and about 20% will continue to pursue a master degree in China. Another 20% will choose to study abroad.
Zongyu: According to the official statistics released by DHU, the employment rate reached 92.18% for the total 729 class of 2015 graduated from the college of fashion and design.
Jingjing:About 90%.
Question from FASH455: How do your professors tell you about the fashion industry in the United States?
Luo Wang: We were told that a notable competitive advantage of the U.S. fashion industry is in marketing and business strategy. As we know, U.S. has the world’s top business schools and MBA programs; I think this is why our professors told us we need to learn more about the business strategy of U.S. fashion companies.
Caixia: U.S. is one of the largest textile and apparel importers in the world. China — by far is the largest supplier of textiles and apparel to the U.S..
Zongyu: I’m sorry for my limited knowledge. I just know a little about the recent trend of American textile industry moving back to the U.S..
Jingjing: The fashion industry in the United States is quite developed, and it has an important place in the world. However, it also meets bottlenecks at its present development stage. Some classic brands are managed less well than in previous years.
Bai Li: Not much…some professors had limited knowledge of the fashion industry in the States.
Question from FASH455: How do you think globalization has affected China, especially its textile and apparel industry?
Luo Wang: In my opinion, globalization is a double-edged sword that brings China both changes and opportunities. The low labor cost was a significant advantage of the apparel industry in China. With the deepening of globalization, however, China has been strengthening the enforcement of regulations in the social aspects, which focus on improving worker’s welfare and meeting the international labor standards. As a result, China is gradually losing the advantages in labor cost compared with many other developing countries. On the other hand, an opportunity for the apparel industry in China is that we begin to pay more attention to the building of our indigenous fashion brands rather than making knockoffs.
Caixia:It is of grave concerns to some Chinese manufacturers that more and more international buyers now switch to source from lower-cost countries such as Bangladesh and Vietnam. However, in my opinion, Chinese manufacturers still enjoy competitive advantages. For example, Chinese suppliers can provide better quality products and more value-added services. Furthermore, by adopting new technologies, Chinese factories are able to offset the impact of increased production cost through improved efficiency and product quality.
On the other hand, globalization has made it more difficult for Chinese fashion companies to develop its own brands. In particular, the local Chinese fashion brands are facing grant challenges with the flood of international brands into the Chinese market.
Zongyu: For Chinese companies, globalization not only has resulted in more competitive pressures but also has created more opportunities to get access to the world marketplace. Chinese companies realize that they have to embrace a global version and develop high quality and innovative products so as to stand out from the market competition.
In terms of the Chinese consumers, globalization has brought them with more choices of better quality and lower-priced products.
Jingjing:Globalization is a two-edged sword, creating both opportunities and challenges for China. In the past, low-cost labor is a major competitive advantage for China. But now China’s cost advantage is gradually diminishing compared with other less developed countries whereas China is still not “strong enough” to compete on technology with advanced economies.
Bai Li: Of course, globalization has created many new job opportunities in China but also has caused some labor and environmental issues.
Questions from FASH455: What are the working conditions of garment factories in China?
Caixia: The working condition in China’s garment factory has improved significantly as you can see from the pictures below. Automation and technology advancement also play an important role.
Zongyu: Dragons and fishes jumbled together, meaning there are companies in either good or bad conditions. But compared with the past, working conditions in the Chinese garment factories overall have much improved. Most factories have met the 5S (5s is the name of a workplace organization method that uses a list of five words: sort, set in order, shine, standardize and sustain) or 6S(5s plus safety) requirements.
Jingjing:Following the principle of 5s management, Chinese garment factories overall are getting cleaner, more orderly and more modernized.
Question from FASH455: Does it bother the Chinese people that American companies send work to China to produce cheap labor?
Zongyu:It is just my personal view: exporting textile and apparel is necessary for China as a developing country to generate economic growth and create job opportunities. But China is also transforming and upgrading its economy.
Jingjing: I think it is a normal phenomenon in the developing world. Actually, Chinese companies have started to offshore production to less developed countries with cheaper labor.
Anything else you would like to share with our students?
Luo Wang:As a pillar industry supporting China’s exports and foreign exchange earnings, the textile and apparel industry is a sector of strategic importance to China’s national economy. You can find the world’s most complete textile and apparel supply chain in China, from material planting to retailing. I would strongly recommend you to come and visit China, from its garment factories in Guangdong province (located in the South Part of China), online apparel retail businesses in Zhejiang Province (for example, Alibaba), to Shanghai where you can enjoy the most novel way of clothing shopping. Further, in today’s supply-chain based economy, China plays a critical role in linking the textile and apparel industry around the world. I am sure understanding China will help you shape a big picture of the global textile and apparel industry and beneficial for your future careers.
Questions from our DHU guests for FASH455 students:
What do Americans think of “Made in China” today?
Do the classes you take help with your career preparation?
Have you taken any internship classes at UD? What did you do?
Apparel products are not subject to the Section 301 tariff yet. Neither the $34 billion product list (subject to the 25% additional tariff rate since July 6, 2018) nor the newly proposed $200 billion product list covers wearing apparel (HS Chapters 61 and 62). The current tariff rates will remain unchanged for now.
Nevertheless, the Section 301 tariff action has created huge market uncertainties for U.S. fashion brands and apparel retailers. Uncertainty hurts business. The monthly trade flows of U.S. apparel imports from China have also turned more fluctuating this year.
Seasonally adjusted data shows that between January-June 2018, the total U.S. apparel imports increased by 1.2 percent in volume and 2.2 percent in value year on year—largely due to the improved U.S. economy which creates more import demand. However, over the same period, the value of U.S. apparel imports from China decreased by 0.8 percent in volume and 2.0 percent in value year on year. Also, in the first half of 2018, China accounted for less than 30% of U.S. apparel imports in value terms, the first time since 2007.
After all, cost concern does NOT seem to be the most influential factor that drives companies to source less from China. The average unit price of U.S. apparel imports from China dropped from $2.5/SME in 2016, $2.38/SME in 2017 to $2.33/SME in the first half of 2018.
In response to the market uncertainty, US importers have already started to accelerate diversifying their sourcing base. Interesting enough, while China’s share in the U.S. apparel import market is declining, there is no single alternative to “Made in China.” Notably, the market shares of Vietnam, Bangladesh, NAFTA and CAFTA only marginally increased in 2018 compared with a year ago. Again, companies’ immediate strategy is to diversify sourcing.
In the short run, the volume of US textile and apparel imports from China is likely to go up since US importers are eager to complete their sourcing orders before the tariff hit. Usually, companies place sourcing orders several months ahead of the season. If the market uncertainty lasts, the real negative impact will be reflected in the trade data later this year or next year.
Last but not least, the Section 301 action is driven by politics. It is insufficient to just calculate the economic costs and benefits; the political costs should be considered as well.
According to the newly released World Trade Statistical Review 2018 by the World Trade Organization (WTO), the current dollar value of world textiles (SITC 65) and apparel (SITC 84) exports totaled $296.1bn and $454.5bn respectively in 2017, increased by 4.2% and 2.8% from a year earlier. This is the first time since 2015 that the value of world textile and apparel exports enjoyed a growth.
Textiles and apparel are not alone. Driven by rising demand for imports globally, the current dollar value of world merchandise exports also grew by 4.7% in 2017–its most robust growth in six years, to reach $17.43 trillion. Particularly, the ratio of trade growth to GDP growth finally returned to its historic average of 1.5, compared to the much lower 1.0 ratio recorded in the years following the 2008 financial crisis.
China, European Union (EU28), and India remained the world’s top three exporters of textiles in 2017. Altogether, these top three accounted for 66.3% of world textile exports in 2017, up from 65.9% in 2016. All the top three also enjoyed a faster-than-average export growth in 2017, including 5.0% of China, 5.8% of EU(28) and 5.9% of India. The United States remained the world’s fourth top textile exporter in 2017, accounting for 4.6 percent of the shares, the same as a year earlier.
Regarding apparel, China, the European Union (EU28), Bangladesh and Vietnam unshakably remained the world’s top four largest exporters in 2017. Altogether, these top four accounted for as much as 75.8% of world market shares in 2017, which was higher than 74.3% a year earlier and a substantial increase from 68.3% back in 2007.
Continuing with the emerging trend in recent years, China is exporting less apparel and more textiles to the world. Notably, China’s market shares in world apparel exports fell from its peak—38.8% in 2014 to a record low of 34.9% in 2017. Meanwhile, China accounted for 37.1% of world textile exports in 2017, which was a new record high. It is important to recognize that China is playing an increasingly critical role as a textile supplier for many apparel-exporting countries in Asia.Measured by value, 47% of Bangladesh’s textile imports came from China in 2017, up from 39% in 2005. We observe similar trends in Cambodia (up from 30% to 65 %), Vietnam (up from 23 % to 50 %), Pakistan (up from 32 % to 71 %), Malaysia (up from 25 % to 54 %), Indonesia (up from 28 % to 46 %), Philippines (up from 19 % to 41 %) and Sri Lanka (up from 15 % to 39 %) over the same period.
