The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) recently released its latest annual China cotton report. Below are the key findings most relevant to U.S. apparel sourcing from the country.
First, China’s retaliatory tariffs could severely impact US cotton exports. Faced with geopolitical tensions and rising competition from other suppliers like Brazil, U.S. cotton exports to China fell sharply by 73% in the first seven months of Marketing Year (MY) 24/25 (i.e., August 2024-February 2025), resulting in a decrease in the U.S. market share to 17.1%, down from 29.6% during the same period in MY 23/24. As noted in the report, “Beijing’s imposition of 140 percent tariffs on U.S. cotton will all but stop further imports from the United States.” Meanwhile, China’s overall demand for raw cotton could fall to a five-year low in MY 24/25, due to insufficient domestic demand and limited growth in textile and apparel exports.
Second, Xinjiang still dominated cotton production in China. Despite the Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act (UFLPA), Xinjiang accounted for approximately 92.3% of cotton production in China during MY 24/25 (note: was 90.9% in MY 23/24) and enjoyed an 11.4% year-on-year increase in total production. According to the USDA report, cotton production, yarn spinning, and textile manufacturing in Xinjiang received numerous subsidies from the government, such as support provided to farmers and cotton planting incentives.
The USDA report also noted that, in addition to raw cotton, textile production has experienced substantial growth in Xinjiang. For example, by the end of 2024, Xinjiang’s yarn spinning capacity reached 29.1 million spindles with 62,400 looms in operation, both marking the highest growth rates in history. “The spinning capacity is expected to rise further as the Xinjiang government plans to spin 45 to 50 percent of the Xinjiang cotton by 2028,” according to the USDA.
Third, China’s textile and apparel exports are facing growing headwinds. The USDA report predicted that “With ongoing market turbulences and uncertainties, China’s textile and apparel exports are expected to decrease in the remainder of MY 24/25” due to higher tariffs and the de minimis rule changes. While large-scale textile and apparel companies in China have been relocating some production to Southeast Asia, small-scale companies with limited resources may struggle to adapt. Additionally, according to the USDA, citing industry sources, the profit margin on China’s clothing exports to the US might be 10% or even lower and “the established textile manufacturers will face increased costs and administrative burdens for all import values, potentially disrupting their supply chains and reducing profit margins” due to the recent de minimis rule changes.
Further reading: U.S. and Xinjiang Cotton Are Locked in a Trade War of Their Own (Sourcing Journal)
FASH455 Global Apparel & Textile Trade and Sourcing 