Original Research – FASH455 Global Apparel & Textile Trade and Sourcing

Apparel Sourcing and Trade Outlook for 2026

Top challenges in 2026

I believe the global fashion apparel industry will continue to face two macro-level challenges in 2026. One is the relatively weak consumer demand for clothing amid sluggish economic growth and persistent inflationary pressures. For example, according to the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) October 2025 forecast, global GDP growth in 2026 is expected to decrease from 3.2% in 2025 to 3.1% in 2026. Specifically, U.S. GDP growth will be around 2.1% (down from 2.8% in 2024), and growth in the EU could drop to 1.1% (down from 1.2% in 2025).

Likewise, several consulting firms forecast that clothing retail sales in key apparel import markets, including the United States and Western Europe, could be stagnant or even decline in 2026. Notably, while Gen Z (i.e., those born between 1997 and 2012) has increasingly become a key customer group for many fashion brands and retailers, analysis shows that this generation has turned more cautious about shopping for clothing, especially for new items. The tariff-driven price increases could further discourage these groups from buying new clothing in the new year ahead.

Meanwhile, the trade policy environment facing the global fashion apparel industry could remain highly uncertain in 2026. Notably, in addition to tariffs, several trade agreements could create new uncertainties for fashion companies when sourcing from affected regions. Specifically:

The U.S.-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) trade agreement will begin its formal six-year review process in 2026. Despite broad industry support for upholding the existing agreement and calls to “do no harm,” we cannot rule out the possibility that the Trump administration might seek significant renegotiation or even replace the USMCA with separate bilateral trade deals.

Likewise, the outlook for the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) and the Haiti HELP/HOPE program, both of which expired in September 2025, remained highly uncertain. Because both programs play a critical role in supporting U.S. apparel sourcing from Sub-Saharan Africa and Haiti, whether and under which conditions they are renewed will directly influence fashion companies’ sourcing decisions and the long-term competitiveness and investment prospects of these regions.

Furthermore, even with several “trade deals” reached between the US and major trading partners like the EU, Vietnam, Cambodia, and potentially China and India, their implementation and enforcement will warrant close attention. In particular, the meaning and definition of critical terms like “transshipment” in these “trade deals” remain largely unclear. However, the impact could be significant for apparel sourcing if the Trump administration ultimately decides to revisit or set new rules of origin in these agreements to reduce the “China content” in products imported into the United States. Notably, according to OECD’s newly released “trade in value-added database,” apparel exports from Asian countries, including Vietnam and Cambodia, commonly contain 20-30% of value created in China.

Key apparel sourcing trends to watch in 2026

First, trade and economic impacts of tariffs could become more visible and significant in 2026. In particular, almost all U.S. apparel imports will be subject to the higher tariffs in 2026, leaving fashion companies with fewer options to use existing inventory to mitigate the effects. Consequently, fashion companies will face increased pressure to control their sourcing costs and protect their profit margins.

Second, fashion companies will continue to leverage sourcing diversification to navigate market and trade policy uncertainties. For example, according to the 2025 Fashion Industry Benchmarking Study released by the U.S. Fashion Industry Association (USFIA), a record-high percentage of surveyed U.S. fashion brands and retailers (i.e., over 80%) reported sourcing from 10 or more countries. Nearly 60% of respondents plan to source from even more countries in 2026. In a recent study I conducted, some leading U.S. and EU fashion companies mentioned in their 2025 Q2 earnings call transcripts that they intentionally seek vendors with production capacity across multiple countries to achieve sourcing diversification and mitigate risks.

Third, in addition to seeking competitive sourcing costs, fashion companies will increasingly look for vendors that can offer speed to market, flexibility, and agility. As one leading fashion company noted, “increasing the speed” does not necessarily mean “nearshoring,” but also refers to vendors that can deliver products quickly and at scale. Meanwhile, fashion companies increasingly expect suppliers to accommodate last-minute order changes, accept low minimum order quantities (MOQs), arrange raw material sourcing, and offer other value-added services. This shows why, based on trade data, Asian suppliers overall are more competitive and have captured more market share in the U.S. and EU markets in 2025 than “near-shoring” suppliers.

Additionally, China and Asia’s role in apparel sourcing could continue to evolve in 2026. I recently attended an industry event featuring textile and apparel manufacturers in Southeast Asian countries (ASEAN) and China. A few observations from the event stood out to me.

While the tariff was a top concern for most U.S. fashion companies, the conference mainly focused on facilitating investment and creating a more integrated, resilient, and sustainable textile and apparel supply chain in Asia. In other words, Asia-based textile and apparel suppliers did not seem panicked by the tariffs, nor do they believe the tariffs fundamentally challenge their long-term growth trajectory or hurt their export competitiveness.
The Asia-based textile and apparel industry is becoming ever more global, mature, and advanced. Consistent with recent trade data, Asia-based fashion brands today commonly conduct global sourcing. They are investing heavily in new sustainable textile materials and digital technologies. They remain the largest buyer of the most sophisticated textile machinery in the world. Therefore, it is reasonable to expect that Asian suppliers as a whole will continue to dominate textile and apparel production and export into 2026 with no near competitors.
China’s leadership and influence within the Asia-based textile and apparel supply chain are increasingly visible. At the conference, ASEAN-based textile and apparel associations see China as a vital partner and source of investment. Through China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), collaboration is extending from trade and investment to education and skills training. Overall, industry sentiment toward China in ASEAN differs significantly from the “decoupling” and “reducing China exposure” narratives that are gaining traction in the United States.
An interesting question that I took away from the conference was whether China truly worries about losing market share in the U.S. and other markets for final apparel products. Perhaps not. Chinese industry leaders appear confident because they know that many Asian garment-producing countries remain heavily dependent on Chinese textile inputs, and many garment factories are funded or owned by Chinese investors. Given these dynamics, it will be interesting to observe how China’s confidence and its broader leadership role in Asia’s regional textile and apparel supply chain will continue to grow in 2026.

Opportunities in 2026

In 2026, we may see a significant increase in AI use in apparel sourcing. For example, fashion companies could use new AI tools to help optimize inventory levels and logistics, identify and evaluate new suppliers, and improve operational efficiency. AI may also play a more crucial role in supporting efforts around supply chain mapping, traceability, and sustainability data collection. Overall, we could see a more digitalized and data-driven sourcing process in the new year ahead.

On the other hand, in 2026, fashion companies could benefit from investing in and exploring new business models that support designing, making, sourcing, and selling sustainable apparel products. For example, a recent study of mine found that, by stock keeping units (SKUs) count, the number of clothing items made with recycled textile fibers increased by about 24% from 2024 to 2025 (August to October) in the U.S. retail market. Similarly, clothing items made with “regenerative” textile fibers surged by nearly 90% over the same period. These figures represent consumers’ increasing demand and fashion companies’ growing business interest in offering these products. New sustainability legislation, such as the Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) at the state, regional, or international levels, will also create new incentives and pressure for fashion companies to revisit many of their current business practices. That said, balancing the sustainability benefits with other key sourcing metrics, such as costs, quality, and traceability, for these sustainable apparel products, will require ongoing efforts and improvements by fashion companies and their supply chain partners in 2026.

by Sheng Lu

Updated Impact of Increasing Tariffs on U.S. Fashion Companies’ Sourcing and Businesses

This study aims to examine the impacts of the Trump administration’s escalating tariffs on U.S. fashion companies’ apparel sourcing practices. Based on data availability, transcripts of the latest earnings calls from about 30 leading publicly traded U.S. fashion companies were collected. These earnings calls, held between August and October 2025, covered company performance in the second quarter of 2025 or later. A thematic analysis of the transcripts was conducted using MAXQDA.

Key findings:

First, U.S. fashion companies reported a more significant impact of the increasing tariffs on their financial performance as the tariff increase expands from China to other countries. Many companies regarded tariffs as one of their top-most pressing external challenges to profitability in 2025, especially in the second half and beyond. For example:

G-III Apparel: “We expect the total incremental cost of tariffs to be approximately $155 million, up from the $135 million original estimate, and this is based on the latest tariff increases implemented for Vietnam, India and Indonesia, among others.”
American Eagle: “On tariffs, yes, we are providing the guidance here for the third and fourth quarter. About $20 million of impact from Q3. $40 million to $50 million in Q4. So that will pressure gross margin a bit.”
Hanesbrands: “When you think about tariffs and the impact on our business, first of all, we won’t be really experiencing that cost until Q4 because of the inventory that we have and the way cost flows off of our balance sheet.”
Victoria’s Secret: “Our projected net tariff impact of $100 million in 2025 is up $50 million versus our assumption embedded in our previous guidance. With approximately $10 million of net tariff impact already recognized in the first half of the year, our guidance assumes approximately $20 million of net tariff pressure in the third quarter with $70 million impact in Q4.”
Tapestry: “We are facing greater than previously expected profit headwinds from tariffs and duties, with the earlier-than-expected ending of de minimis exemptions being a meaningful factor. In aggregate, the total expected impact on profitability this year from tariffs is $160 million, representing approximately 230 basis points of margin headwind.”
Carter’s: “We’ve assessed the higher incremental tariffs, which have already been implemented, an additional 10% duty for all countries and higher incremental duties for products from China, Vietnam and Indonesia. Relative to a few months ago, we’re preparing for a world with higher and more permanent tariffs above the over $100 million in duties, which we have paid historically. Our estimate of the additional baseline tariffs is that it would represent a gross additional tariff amount between $125 million and $150 million on an annualized basis.”

Second, despite the higher tariff burdens, most U.S. fashion companies still try to avoid across-the-board price hikes due to concerns about losing consumers. Instead, most companies opt for selective price increases, value-based pricing, and closely monitor consumers’ price sensitivity. However, price increases could be more noticeable down the road. For example:

Oxford industries: “We’ve not done sort of an across-the-board approach to pricing. We’ve really looked at it on an item-by-item basis and balanced the need to protect our margins and try to recover some of the tariff impact with not wanting to get too far ahead of ourselves because that tariff number…as we get into spring ’26… And on average, that’s led to sort of low to mid-single digit or low mid-single-digit price increases…we’re just being very cautious about increasing the price too much before we really know where things are settled out.”
URBN: “our pricing strategy…is really to look at some gentle price increases where we feel like there’s the value that contributes to that. So making sure that we’re protecting some of the opening price points that the customer counts on and some programs that we know drive a lot of volume…Recognizing the value equation is really important to all of our consumers.”
TJX: “I think you’re gonna see a more of a little bit of a gradual increase in pricing as the tariffs come in…I don’t think you’ll see step all of a sudden Right. With the tariffs set,because I don’t wanna, I think, turn off customers immediately by seeing a dramatic price shift. So I think they might they might they might absorb it initially for a little bit, and eventually, they’ll get there.”
Columbia Sports: “We expect higher prices for many consumer goods will negatively impact consumer demand…In fall ’25, we’re working with our retail partner to deliver value to consumers and keep inventory and dealer margins healthy. As a result, we’re not making any significant price changes to our fall ’25 product line and expect to absorb much of the incremental tariff costs this year…Our goal is to offset higher tariffs over time through a combination of actions, including price increases, vendor negotiations, SG&A expense efficiencies and other mitigation tactics.”
Ralph Lauren: “The big unknown sitting here today is the price sensitivity and how the consumer reacts to the broader pricing environment and how sensitive that consumer is. And that’s what we’re watching very closely as we head into the second half.”
Ross stores: “Some of the India tariffs, especially if the 25 goes to 50…I think that you’ll see this go into next year, and I think we would expect to see price increases. And — but over time…we think it will reach equilibrium, and it will be business as usual.”
Burlington stores: “we are seeing that competitors are taking up retail prices. So far, though, I would say that those price increases have been quite selective and quite restrained…Part of it may just be the time lag between imports arriving in the country and those goods showing up in stores. But also my sense is that wholesalers and retailers have been reluctant to make decisions on raising prices until they know what the final tariff rates are going to be. Now it does feel like there is more clarity on this now than there was a couple of months ago. So it wouldn’t be surprising if retail prices were to go up across the industry in the back half of the year. Now of course, we know that our customer is very, very price sensitive.”
VF Corporation: “we have actions in place to mitigate the tariff impact through sourcing savings and pricing actions that will take effect later this year.”

Third, while U.S. fashion companies overall continue to reduce their apparel sourcing from China amid the current tariff and geopolitical tensions, some companies still regard China as a viable sourcing base given its many unique advantages, such as speed to market, production efficiency, and well-developed supply chain infrastructure. For example:

Carter’s Inc: “We’ve meaningfully reduced our exposure to China manufacturing over the last number of years. And now, as summarized here, our largest countries of origin are Vietnam, Cambodia, Bangladesh, and India.”
Abercrombie & Fitch: “Our approach and underlying principles for tariff mitigation remain unchanged, supported by a deep playbook and experience. We continue to expect China sourcing share in the U.S. will be in the low single digits for the year.”
Steve Madden: “Since the last call…We have moved certain production for fall back to China, where we felt it would be difficult to ensure on-time delivery, appropriate product quality and/or reasonable pricing in an alternative country. For fall 2025, we currently expect to source approximately 30% of our U.S. imports from China, down from 71% for the full year 2024..
Oxford industries: “With the recent tariff increases announced during the second quarter, including increased tariffs in countries like Vietnam and India that were included as part of our shift away from China, largely offset by the mitigation efforts we have undertaken, including accelerated inventory receipts and quickly shifting our sourcing network.”
American Eagle: “If you start with all the country of origin remixing…China where we know we were at a higher penetration coming into the year is mid-single digit now in a full year.”

Fourth, establishing a geographically diverse sourcing base continues to be a crucial strategy employed by U.S. fashion companies to mitigate tariff impacts and policy uncertainty. U.S. fashion companies are also intentionally adding speed, flexibility, and agility to their sourcing base and supply chain. However, given the complex sourcing factors fashion companies have to consider, plus the broad scope of “reciprocal tariffs, there is no clear winner. For example:

Kohl’s: “We have a diversified sourcing strategy from a country standpoint. We’re not heavily reliant on any one particular country, and we have the flexibility and agility to actually move production to other countries if necessary.”
PVH: “We work closely with an established network of global sourcing partners across more than 30 countries, and we continue to leverage our deep long-standingrelationships to further optimize our sourcing and production costs.”
American Eagle: “If you start with all the country of origin remixing…India is small for us. Rebalancing some things out of Vietnam.”
Steve Madden: “we were focused on moving a lot of product to Brazil. We’re going to have to wait and see what happens. I think that really goes not just for Brazil, but for a lot of the countries that we work with. So we’ve tried to create a more diversified sourcing footprint. And — but there’s obviously a lot of uncertainty still about where the ultimate tariff rates will land by country. And so we’re going to have to wait and see what happens and then react accordingly. That’s all we can do.”
Hanesbrands: “when you think about tariffs and the impact on our business…not only do you have the Q4 impact, but you have to think about those other offsets about meaningful U.S. content that we have in our products that are exempt from reciprocal, the good East-West balance that we have in our supply chain…”
Land’s End: “With regard to sourcing…we have been intentionally repositioning our sourcing network to better serve the business we are building leading to a more balanced supply chain that enables us to bring new solutions to customers with more speed and frequency throughout the year. For example, our licens epartners are becoming part of our sourcing network…By tapping into the full breadth of our sourcing matrix, we are able to swiftly and strategically reposition fabric and manufacturing as tariff conditions evolve.”

Fifth, as part of their tariff cost mitigation strategy, many U.S. fashion companies have been strategically but cautiously building preemptive stock, adopting a data-driven approach to optimize inventory, and simplifying product assortment. For example:

Levi’s: “And for Q4, we declared a dividend of 14¢ per share, which is up8% to prior year. We ended the quarter with reported inventory dollars up 12%, driven by purposeful investment ahead of the holiday and higher product cost than a year ago due to tariffs. In unit terms, inventory was up 8% versus last year. As of today (October 9, 2025), we have 70% of the product in the US needed for holiday.”
Ralph Lauren: “So we feel good about our inventory levels as we head into the fall season. So we ended Q1 (2025), as you know, with inventories up 18% versus Q1 of last year (2024)…if you think about sort of our Q2 revenue guide of up high single digits, relates to the strategic acceleration of largely core inventory receipts into the U.S. in Q1 during the tariff pause period…So if you back out that tariff-related strategic pull up, our inventory growth is actually a little behind our double-digit top line growth for Q1 and right in line with our expected high single-digit top line growth for next quarter, Q2. And…for the year to go, we expect inventories to moderate as we move throughout the fiscal year, and we plan on ending fiscal ’26 with levels generally in line with demand.”
PVH: “Inventory at quarter end (Q2, 2025) was up13% compared to Q2 last year (2024), including a 1% increase due to tariffs, and reflects a planned improvement compared to up 19% in Q1.”
Hanesbrands: “we’re leveraging advanced analytics with the use of AI to drive operational improvement around the globe, including inventory and assortment management as well as demand planning and forecasting.”
Tapestry: “We’re bringing more innovation to the assortment while we streamline our offering, reducing handbag styles by over 30% by fall, allowing us to stand behind our big ideas with clarity and intention.”

by Sheng Lu

Patterns of U.S. Apparel Imports (updated September 2025)

First, as a result of the IEEPA reciprocal tariff, the average tariff rate for U.S. apparel imports (HS Chapters 61 and 62) reached 26.4% in July 2025, marking a new high in decades (note: was 25.4% in June, 23.8% in May and 20.2% in April 2025), and a substantial increase from 14.7% in January 2025, prior to Trump’s second term. Even apparel imports from traditional U.S. free trade agreement partners, such as CAFTA-DR members, now have to be subject to about 10% applied tariffs. And apparel imports from Mexico still enjoyed a relatively low 1.6% tariff rate in July 2025. [Check the applied US apparel import tariff rate here]

Second, U.S. apparel imports fell in July 2025, negatively impacted by the hiking of tariffs and consumers’ growing hesitancy in clothing spending amid uncertainty about their household financial outlook. Specifically, U.S. apparel imports in July 2025 decreased by 3.0% in value and 5.2% in quantity from a year ago, indicating both an overall shrinking import demand and a more notable import price increase. [Check U.S. apparel import index here]

Statistics also show that after removing the seasonal factor, the average U.S. apparel import price went up by nearly 3% from April to July. This trend could become even worse in the coming months as more countries face even higher “reciprocal tariffs” starting from August 2025. However, the average U.S. apparel retail price has not significantly increased, likely because fashion companies fear losing sales at a time when consumers’ clothing spending is already weak. [Check the U.S. clothing retail price index here]

Third, continuing the trends from previous months, U.S. apparel imports from China again fell sharply in July 2025. Facing nearly 50% tariff rates—much higher than those applied to other sourcing countries—U.S. apparel imports from China decreased by 38.4% in value and 27.3% in quantity in July 2025 from a year ago. As a result, in value, China’s market share fell to just 15.6% in July 2025 (was 24.6% in July 2024), significantly lower than Vietnam’s 22.1% (was 19.1% in June 2024). In other words, it may signal a new era where China is no longer the top source of U.S. apparel imports. [Check market shares in U.S. apparel imports here]

Fourth, while Asia as a whole still dominates, trade data suggests more notable trends of sourcing diversification. In July 2025, about 72.9% of U.S. apparel imports came from China, far exceeding the Western Hemisphere (14.8%) and the rest of the world (12.4%). However, Asia’s market share in July 2025 was slightly lower than 74.7% a year ago, suggesting that more imports came from other regions. For example, at the country level, US apparel imports from several emerging Asian suppliers and those in the Middle East and Africa enjoyed fast growth, including Vietnam (up 12.5%), Cambodia (up 25.2%), Pakistan (up 14.7%), Jordan (up 21.6%), and Egypt (up 30.3%).

Meanwhile, U.S. apparel imports from India in July 2025 also increased by over 15%, although the newly imposed higher tariffs on India could alter the trend in the next few months.

Additionally, there is still no evidence that Trump’s tariff policy has meaningfully boosted nearshoring from the Western Hemisphere. On the contrary, in July 2025, U.S. apparel imports from Mexico grew by just 0.5%, despite the significant tariff advantage offered to USMCA-qualifying products. Similarly, imports from CAFTA-DR members decreased by 2.7%. The results revealed the adverse effects of uncertainty in the Trump administration’s tariff policy on encouraging long-term sourcing and investment commitment to the region.

(note: this post is not open for discussion)

By Sheng Lu

2025 August Sourcing at MAGIC Recap

The latest Sourcing at MAGIC, one of the largest and most influential fashion apparel trade shows in North America, was held from August 18 to 20, 2025 in Las Vegas. Drawing thousands of apparel manufacturers, textile raw material suppliers, brands, and retail buyers from over 30 countries around the globe, the event provides a unique opportunity to observe the latest U.S. apparel sourcing trends and market sentiment.

Aligned with the results of the 2025 Fashion Industry Benchmarking Study released by the United States Fashion Industry Association (USFIA), the hiking tariffs imposed by the Trump administration and ongoing policy uncertainty were among the top concerns for MAGIC attendees. One major tariff impact often heard at the MAGIC show was the growing inflationary pressure. It was a prevailing view among vendors, brands, and retailers that a price increase had begun and would become even more noticeable to U.S. consumers in the upcoming months. Some also argue that “tariff is no longer a sourcing problem,” but how brands and retailers should handle their “profit margin, product assortment, and pricing.”

Meanwhile, apparel suppliers care significantly about the additional “reciprocal tariff” rates they face compared to their key competitors. For instance, a jeans supplier from Pakistan said they were relieved to see more order inquiries come in, as their Indian competitors faced significantly higher tariff rates threatened by the Trump administration.

Still, nearly 600 exhibitors from China attended MAGIC, making it the largest delegation from any country. Two interesting phenomena revealed how Chinese suppliers try to stay competitive in today’s challenging business environment. One is to offer various value-added sourcing services beyond physical products. For example, there was a dedicated session at this year’s MAGIC show that featured Chinese manufacturers that provide services such as drop shipping (i.e., when a customer places an order, the retail store never physically handles the product. Instead, the manufacturer is responsible for inventory, packing, and shipping), director to consumer (DTC) e-commerce and warehousing. Meanwhile, some Chinese vendors accept small orders (i.e., 6 pieces or less) or low minimum orders (i.e., 300 pieces) and promise a short lead time of 45 days. In comparison, the minimum order quantity (MOQ) required by suppliers in other Asian and Western Hemisphere countries typically exceeds thousands of pieces.

On the other hand, it is not uncommon to see that vendors from Bangladesh, Vietnam, Cambodia, or even Egypt and Ghana were actually owned by Chinese investors. Several Chinese factories purposefully highlight that they own factories across the world, from China and Southeast Asia to Africa. According to the USFIA benchmarking study, some U.S. fashion companies also prefer vendors with production capabilities in multiple countries to reduce sourcing risks.

As U.S. fashion companies continue to diversify their sourcing beyond the traditional top three—China, Vietnam, and Bangladesh—emerging destinations are increasingly optimistic about their U.S. export prospects. For instance, a supplier from Jordan noted that recent U.S. tariff hikes have boosted Jordan’s competitiveness, given the zero most-favored-nation (MFN) tariff under the U.S.-Jordan Free Trade Agreement and a 15% reciprocal tariff rate, which was lower than many Asian suppliers face.Jordanian suppliers speak highly of the capacity-building support from international organizations such as the International Trade Centre (ITC), particularly in areas like skills training and market intelligence.

Similar to Jordan, Egypt’s apparel exports can benefit from a zero most-favored-nation (MFN) tariff, provided they meet the rules of origin under the Qualifying Industrial Zones (QIZ) initiative. However, unlike Jordan, suppliers from Egypt tend to specialize in cotton and other natural-fiber–intensive apparel, leveraging their advantages in producing locally made, high-quality natural textile fibers.

Clothing made from preferred sustainable fibers, particularly those incorporating recycled textiles, has grown increasingly popular. Nearly every country represented at MAGIC, including developing nations in Asia and Africa, showcased such products.

It should be noted, however, that producing clothing with sustainable textile fibers requires suppliers to obtain certifications such as GOTS (Global Organic Textile Standard), Global Recycled Standard (GRS), and Better Cotton Initiative (BCI). Although these certifications add costs, most vendors view sustainability as an opportunity to enhance export competitiveness rather than a threat in the long term. Some also mentioned that buyers were often willing to pay a premium for products made with sustainable materials, providing a significant financial incentive.

On the other hand, achieving sustainable sourcing and production is becoming increasingly comprehensive, requiring continuous innovation in both technology and business models. For example, at the show, some vendors showcased apparel products that integrated multiple sustainability concepts, ranging from material development and eco-design to social responsibility and post-consumption solutions.

by Sheng Lu

2025 USFIA Fashion Industry Benchmarking Study Released

The full report is HERE.

Key findings of this year’s report:

#1 This year, the top business challenges facing U.S. fashion companies center on the Trump Administration’s escalating tariff policy and its wide-ranging impacts on companies’ sourcing and business operations.

100 percent of respondents rated “Protectionist U.S. trade policies and related policy uncertainty, including the impact of the Trump tariffs” as one of their top business challenges in 2025. This included as much as 95 percent of respondents who ranked the issue among their top two concerns.
Respondents also expressed significant concerns about the wide-ranging effects of Trump’s tariff policy, including “Inflation and economic outlook in the U.S. economy” (80 percent), “Increasing production or sourcing cost” (nearly 50 percent), and “Protectionist trade policies and policy uncertainty in foreign countries, including retaliatory measures against the U.S.” (52 percent).
Over 70 percent of surveyed companies reported that the higher tariffs increased sourcing costs, squeezed profit margins, and led to higher consumer prices. Approximately half of the respondents reported a decline in sales, and 22 percent stated that they had to lay off employees due to increased tariffs.

#2 Maintaining a geographically diverse sourcing base has been one of the most popular strategies adopted by U.S. fashion companies to mitigate the impact of rising tariffs and policy uncertainty.

This year, respondents reported sourcing apparel products from 46 countries, similar to the 48 countries reported in 2024 and an increase from 44 countries in 2023. At the firm level, approximately 60 percent of large companies with 1,000+ employees reported sourcing from ten or more countries in 2025, a notable increase from the 45–55 percent range reported in 2022 and 2023 surveys.
- Amid escalating tariffs and rising policy uncertainty, Asia has become an ever more dominant apparel sourcing base for U.S. fashion companies in 2025. Respondents reported increased use of several Asia-based sourcing destinations other than China in 2025 compared to the previous year, including Vietnam (up from 90 percent to 100 percent), Cambodia (up from 75 percent to 94 percent), Bangladesh (up from 86 percent to 88 percent), Indonesia (up from 75 percent to 77 percent), and Sri Lanka (up from 39 percent to 53 percent).As part of their sourcing diversification strategy, U.S. fashion companies are also gradually increasing sourcing from emerging destinations in the Western Hemisphere and beyond, such as Jordan, Peru, and Colombia.
- Most respondents intend to build a more geographically diverse sourcing base and broaden their vendor network over the next two years. Nearly 60 percent of respondents plan to source apparel from more countries, and another 40 percent plan to source from more suppliers or vendors. Reducing sourcing risk, especially to minimize the impact of rising tariffs and tariff uncertainty, is a key driver of companies’ sourcing diversification strategies

#3 U.S. fashion companies remain deeply concerned about the future of the U.S.-China relationship during Trump’s second term and intend to further “reduce China exposure” to mitigate sourcing risks.

While 100 percent of respondents reported sourcing from China this year, a record-high 60 percent of respondents reported sourcing fewer than 10% of their apparel products from China, up from 40 percent in 2024. Approximately 70 percent of respondents no longer used China as their top apparel supplier in 2025, representing a further increase from 60 percent in 2024 and significantly higher than the 25-30 percent range prior to the pandemic.
Despite the announcement of the reaching of a U.S.-China “trade deal” in May 2025, more than 80 percent of respondents plan to further reduce their apparel sourcing from China over the next two years through 2027, hitting a new record high. Many large-scale U.S. fashion companies are already limiting or plan to limit their apparel sourcing from China to a “low single-digit” percentage by 2026 or earlier, mainly due to concerns about the increasing geopolitical and trade policy risks associated with sourcing from the country.
Still, respondents rated China as highly economically competitive as an apparel sourcing base compared to many of its Asian competitors regarding vertical manufacturing capability, low minimum order quantity (MOQ) requirements, flexibility and agility, sourcing costs, and speed to market. However, non-economic factors, particularly the perceived extremely high risks of facing U.S. import restrictions, geopolitical tensions with the U.S., and concerns about forced labor, are driving U.S. fashion companies to continue their de-risking efforts.

#4 No evidence indicates that the Trump Administration’s tariff policy has successfully encouraged U.S. fashion companies to increase domestic sourcing of “Made in the USA” textile and apparel products or to expand sourcing from the Western Hemisphere.

Only about 44 percent of respondents explicitly say that they would expand sourcing from the Western Hemisphere, and even fewer respondents (17 percent) plan to source more textiles and apparel “Made in the USA” amid the tariff increase.
This year, fewer respondents reported sourcing apparel from Mexico and Canada (down from 60 percent in 2024 to 50 percent in 2025) and members of the Dominican Republic-Central America Free Trade Agreement, CAFTA-DR (down from 75 percent in 2024 to 64 percent in 2025).
About half of the respondents plan to expand apparel sourcing from Mexico and CAFTA-DR members over the next two years. Notably, nearly all of these companies also intend to increase sourcing from Asia, indicating that U.S. fashion companies view near-shoring from the Western Hemisphere as a complement, not a replacement, to their broader sourcing diversification strategy.
Respondents consider the most urgent capacity-building needs within CAFTA-DR lie in the production of textile raw materials (e.g., spandex) and accessories (e.g., zippers, threads, and buttons). Meanwhile, USMCA members are considered to have relatively stronger capacities in yarn and fabric production but face more pressing shortages in accessories.

#5 Respondents overall remain highly committed to sustainability, social responsibility, and compliance issues in the sourcing process.

This year, the top sustainability and compliance areas where respondents plan to allocate more resources include “Investing in technology to enhance supply chain traceability or isotopic testing” (53 percent), “Providing sustainability and social compliance training for internal employees” (50 percent) and “Providing sustainability and social compliance training for suppliers” (50 percent).
As part of U.S. fashion companies’ sustainability efforts, all respondents (100 percent) report sourcing clothing made with “sustainable textile fibers” in 2025. Having 11–50% of apparel products containing various “sustainable textile fibers” is the most common (40 percent of respondents), followed by having 1–10% of the total sourcing value or volume(30 percent of respondents).
Moreover, most respondents (over 70 percent) plan to increase their use of various “sustainable fibers” in clothing over the next three years. This trend is especially strong for recycled materials, with 80 percent of respondents indicating they intend to increase their use.
The top three positions with the highest demand among respondents from 2025 through 2030 are “Environmental sustainability-related specialists or managers,” “Trade compliance specialists,” and “Data scientists”—more than 40 percent of respondents plan to increase hiring. There is also strong demand for “Textile raw material specialists” and “Sourcing specialists.”

#6 With the upcoming expiration of the trade preference program this September, respondents again underscore the importance of immediate renewal of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) and extending the agreement for at least another ten years.

Due to the upcoming expiration of AGOA and uncertainty about its future, this year, respondents sourced from only six SSA and AGOA members (i.e., Kenya, Ethiopia, Ghana, Madagascar, Mauritius, and Tanzania), fewer than the seven countries in 2024. And none of these countries were used by more than 20 percent of respondents.
Nearly 80 percent of respondents support “renewing AGOA for at least another ten years,” and no one opposes. This shows a consistent and wide base of support for AGOA among U.S. fashion companies.
More than 70 percent of respondents say that securing a long-term renewal of AGOA for at least ten years is essential for expanding apparel sourcing from the region. Similarly, another 60 percent of respondents believe that a long-term renewal of AGOA is necessary for U.S. fashion companies and their supply chain partners to commit to new investments in the region.
Respondents warned that AGOA’s pending renewal has already begun to harm the region’s prospects as an apparel sourcing base. Approximately 30 percent of respondents explicitly stated that they had already reduced sourcing from AGOA members due to the uncertainty surrounding the agreement’s renewal.

About the study

Authored by Dr. Sheng Lu in collaboration with the United States Fashion Industry Association (USFIA), this year’s benchmarking study was based on a survey of executives from 25 leading U.S. fashion companies from April to June 2025. The study incorporated a balanced mix of respondents representing various businesses in the U.S. fashion industry. Approximately 85 percent of respondents were self-identified retailers, 60 percent were self-identified brands, and about 50 percent were importers/wholesalers.

The survey respondents included large U.S. fashion corporations and medium-sized companies. Around 90 percent of respondents reported having over 1,000 employees; the rest (10 percent) represented medium-sized companies with 100-999 employees.

Impacts of Tariffs: Gen Z’s Perspective

In a new Just-Style mini series, students from FASH455 and the FASH department at the University of Delaware shared their valuable Gen Z perspectives on the impact of the recent tariff increases.

Students’ responses reveal that the impacts of the tariff increase on ordinary U.S. consumers are real, direct, and significant. Like other consumer groups, our Gen Z students express deep concern about the adverse effects of tariffs on the U.S. economy, market uncertainties, and the fashion industry’s growth prospects this year. While shopping for clothing, many students have noticed price increases and reduced product availability due to tariff hikes and related disruptions.

On the other hand, as Gen Z consumers, students send a strong message to fashion brands and retailers—sustainability still matters. In fact, in this environment, students have become ever more conscious of sustainability, asking critical questions such as: Do I really need to buy more clothing? Where was the clothing made? Was the clothing produced ethically? In other words, we may see a growing shift toward “slow fashion” among Gen Z consumers, who expect apparel brands and retailers to make even stronger commitments toward sustainability and social responsibility, instead of compromising these values for “cost mitigation.”

Likewise, students expect higher-quality products or items that can last longer to justify the higher price they pay. Regularly shopping for secondhand clothing, driven by its affordability, environmental benefits, and unique styles, could also become increasingly popular. This leaves an interesting question about the future of cheap but low-quality fast fashion and its attractiveness among Gen Z consumers.

The mini series is available through Just-style. Below are selected comments from students:

Gen Z consumers care about tariffs in the news

Rachel Zemel (Fashion Merchandising and Management major): As a Fashion Merchandising and Management major, I’ve definitely been paying closer attention to how tariffs impact what we see on the sales floor. Learning about global sourcing and trade agreements in class has made me more curious about where products are coming from and how political or economic shifts can directly affect the retail industry. I’ve caught myself checking clothing labels more often to see where things are made and understand why certain brands are shifting their production away from countries like China. I think what used to feel like a distant conversation now feels very connected to the way I shop and think about product availability.

Annabelle Gensler (Fashion Merchandising & Management and Fashion Design & Product Innovation double majors): The tariff discussion has been far more impactful on my shopping habits than I would have imagined…I’d like to consider myself a thoughtful consumer in that I rarely make impulse purchases, and I do what I can to avoid feeling any sense of buyer’s remorse. This has become exceptionally true in today’s evolving state of trade policy and manifests itself in a few ways…As a fashion student, I have a good understanding of what constitutes a fair price for fashion and apparel goods. I try to use these strengths of mine by paying close attention to fiber content, care instructions, origin of materials, and manufacturing location. Overall, I’d say the tariff discussion makes me think twice, three times, ten times before making a purchase.

Alexandra Untu (Fashion Merchandising and Management and Philosophy double majors): As a fashion student and fashion lover, I closely follow tariff updates and actively try to educate myself to gain a more objective and informed perspective on the changes introduced by the current administration. Although I started shopping more consciously a while ago, I’m now more intentional than ever with my purchases…I pay attention to where clothes are made and take the time to research their country of origin and production practices. I’ve also been focusing on buying pieces made from high-quality materials, with timeless styles that are versatile enough to be worn in different outfits and settings.

Lola Kulis (Fashion merchandising and management major and 4+1 graduate student): As a Fashion Merchandising student, I’ve been especially invested in the ongoing discussion around tariffs and their impact on retail pricing. From an industry perspective, it’s scary; as someone preparing to enter the field, I feel uncertain about what the future holds. And as a consumer, I feel frustrated. We’re facing the direct impact of global trade decisions influencing the pricing and accessibility of apparel. The worst part is the uncertainty. The constant policy changes and back and forth are only putting more stress on business owners, consumers, the working class, etc.. The media coverage surrounding these trade policies has made me realize how interconnected global sourcing and retail pricing really are. I’ve started paying closer attention to where garments are manufactured and how those origins might impact cost, availability, and even quality. I’ve shifted my perspective, not only as a student but also as a consumer.

Madison Toth (Fashion Merchandising and Management major): The tariff discussion in the media has definitely increased my interest in where exactly my clothing is being made. As I shop, I have started to check labels on where these apparel items are being manufactured. It is fascinating to me that the most popular and successful U.S retailers are globally sourcing apparel, yet the increase in tariffs is being thrown into policy. Admittedly, I struggle to keep up with the news, but I’m very intrigued by the current tariff discussion. I follow closely because it will affect my job in the future as I enter my career in the fashion industry, but also as a consumer.

Price hikes and reduced product availability due to tariffs concern Gen Z consumers

Rachel Zemel (Fashion Merchandising and Management major): Since April, I’ve definitely noticed price increases…I’ve also noticed a shift in product availability, especially when I shop online. Certain sizes and styles are gone faster than usual and don’t seem to get restocked. In stores, the selection feels limited too. It seems like brands are being more careful with how much they’re producing, maybe to avoid excess inventory or reduce risk. As someone who shops a lot and also studies this industry, it’s interesting to see how these challenges are playing out in real-time. It makes me think differently about what goes into every piece I buy.

Annabelle Gensler (Fashion Merchandising & Management and Fashion Design & Product Innovation double majors): The majority of the shopping I’ve done since April has occurred online, and the biggest difference I’ve noticed since the tariff discourse has started, is the stock of goods available. It’s rare that I stumble upon a product offering that has all sizes and colors in-stock. Now, when I filter my search for a graduation dress in the size and color I prefer, fewer and fewer items populate. In the past, retailers might have been able to bulk order goods to maintain stock domestically, or ship from international locations directly to the consumer; tariffs have halted these practices. Items I’m considering purchasing no longer feel safe in my cart because of how quickly stockouts are occurring. This, paired with an expectation of drastic increases in price, has created an internal sense of urgency when I have items in my cart. I know it’s unlikely that the item will be available at a certain price point, or at all, and so the conscious consumerism I try to practice is really being put to the test.

Alexandra Untu (Fashion Merchandising and Management and Philosophy double majors): Based on my own and my friends’ experience, the changes have been subtle so far, but noticeable. Prices have been going up gradually across all types of products, including clothing, but the availability of products hasn’t yet turned into a cause for concern. While the current situation is not dramatic as of now, there is undoubtedly a change that is happening, and we are expecting more striking changes in the near future that could affect our shopping behavior quite significantly.

Madeline Osbourn (Fashion Merchandising and Management major): The tariff increase has affected merchandise orders for my sorority. The tariffs have made the prices rise on orders that we planned on making. This creates an issue with prepaid and future orders, keeping in mind the members’ willingness to transition and conform to the higher-priced merchandise that is designed.

Lola Kulis (Fashion merchandising and management major and 4+1 graduate student): Because inflation has been on the rise for some time now, it’s hard to differentiate the cause of these price changes. Prices for basics, like denim, cotton tops, and even activewear, are outrageously high. Over the past year, I’ve observed a significant decline in promotional activity. Retailers are offering fewer discounts, and even Black Friday, once known for major deals, felt noticeably underwhelming. Considering the current global trade and policy changes, I only see this worsening. On the availability side, popular sizes and color options tend to sell out much more quickly, leading to a more competitive shopping experience.

Madison Toth (Fashion Merchandising and Management major): To be honest, I have been reluctant to shop with popular fashion retailers because of the current tariff discussions. I have strayed away from shopping online and in-store due to the uncertainty of the economic climate. While apparel prices are increasing, as well as other products, it is vital for me to take all of that into consideration. Tariffs affect more than apparel, and as a college student, some purchases take priority over clothing. Because of this, I am unable to comment on price and product availability since the tariff discussion began. I have simply decided that, for me personally, in the current economic climate, apparel shopping should be placed on the back burner.

Sustainability matters even more

Rachel Zemel (Fashion Merchandising and Management major): Sustainability matters even more to me now. When prices go up, it forces me to think about the long-term value of what I’m buying. I want to spend my money on items that are made with quality materials and with people and the planet in mind. It’s hard to justify spending more on something that was cheaply made or won’t last beyond a few wears. I think price increases actually help push the conversation toward more conscious consumption. Even with a student budget, I try to prioritize brands that are transparent about their production or at least make some effort toward ethical practices. It’s not always possible to buy 100% sustainably, but I try to balance things. thrifting, supporting small designers, and not overconsuming are just a couple of changes that can have a big impact. Sustainability isn’t just about buying the “right” thing, it’s about shifting the way we shop. That mindset doesn’t go away just because prices are rising.

Alexandra Untu (Fashion Merchandising and Management and Philosophy double majors): Sustainability has always been a core value for me, and that won’t change, even if prices rise. Sustainability isn’t just a trend; it goes far beyond money – it’s a life-or-death issue. It’s a moral responsibility we have to future generations, and we shouldn’t treat it lightly or abandon it. Shopping with sustainability in mind isn’t always the easiest or the cheapest route, but it’s the right one. Now, more than ever, we should be doing -or learning to do – the right thing. Every purchase sends a message about the change we want to see. Every purchase is a small step toward a better, more responsible future for us and for our children.

Lola Kulis (Fashion merchandising and management major and 4+1 graduate student): Sustainability matters even more to me in the face of rising prices. As clothing becomes more expensive, we become more hesitant in purchasing. I think more about what I’m investing in, starting with being intentional about supporting brands that are transparent, responsible, and committed to reducing their environmental impact. I’d rather buy less and choose more wisely than spend more on items that contribute to overproduction and waste. I’ve realized more than ever that sustainability is not a trend, it’s our future. As I prepare to enter the fashion industry, it’s important that I practice what I preach and support the long-term goals.

Madison Toth (Fashion Merchandising and Management major): Sustainability is something that I do genuinely care about. When shopping, I tend to lean more towards brands that practice ethical sourcing and are more transparent about where their items come from. From my time as a student, I have learned many of the horrible outcomes of the fashion industry related to sustainability. From seeing videos of workers begging for higher wages, seeing dyes dumped into bodies of water, and looking at the incredibly tall piles of textile waste, it sticks with me both as a student and a consumer…If a price increase meant that apparel manufacturers were getting paid fair wages, I would purchase those items. However, now, due to tariffs, I am more likely to dodge popular retailers. Sustainability is very important to my generation, and I value the efforts that brands have made to become more sustainable. But it raises the question, when is a price so high that sustainability no longer matters? To that, it’s hard to say. I think it depends on the economic status of each consumer. From sustainable companies with higher prices, there are purchases that I just cannot justify paying. I do care about sustainability, but there does come a point where it becomes financially unattainable.

Katie Yasik (Fashion Design and Product Innovation major): Yes, sustainability still matters to me, even with rising prices. It’s not always easy to prioritize, especially on a student budget, but I try to make more conscious choices like buying fewer, longer-lasting pieces or shopping secondhand. I think it’s important to consider the environmental and social impact of fast fashion, and if prices are going up anyway, I’d rather invest in something that aligns with my values.

Isabella DiGiulio (Fashion merchandising and management major and 4+1 graduate student): I think that the tariffs may bring a new wave of interest in sustainability, specifically for donation-based, second-hand clothing stores. These stores will likely be able to maintain their low pricing because they do not need to account for operational expenses in apparel production. Even if there is to be a price increase, their prices may still remain relatively lower and more affordable compared to first-hand clothing brands…Furthermore, sustainable shopping doesn’t solely refer to purchasing second-hand goods or buying from brands with biodegradable fabrics or ethical labor practices. Sustainable shopping can also refer to the abstinence from shopping. With influences such as social media and fast fashion, overconsumption has become an extremely normalized practice through which many people, especially Gen Z, feel compelled to consistently refresh their wardrobes to follow trends and keep up with the ever-changing standards of style and identity.

Explore more:

Patterns of U.S. Apparel Sourcing and Imports (updated April 2025)

The following analysis was based on the latest trade statistics from the Office of Textiles and Apparel (OTEXA) under the U.S. Department of Commerce.

First, the growth of U.S. apparel imports significantly slowed as fashion companies shifted from eagerly piling up stock to the wait-and-see mode. Specifically, in February 2025, U.S. apparel imports moderately went up 3.2% in value and 1.5% in quantity, much lower than the 18-19% increase seen in late 2024 and January 2025. The much-slowed growth confirmed that the earlier U.S. apparel import surge was largely driven by fashion companies’ worries about the upcoming tariff hikes rather than an actual increase in consumer demand.

Adding to the concern, U.S. consumer confidence fell sharply, which could lead to a steep drop in U.S. apparel imports ahead. For example, the Consumer Confidence Index dropped to a two-year low of 92.9 in March 2025, down from 100.1 the previous month (1985=100). Similarly, the Expectations Index—which measures consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—plunged to 65.2, marking its lowest level in 12 years. With the announcement of reciprocal tariffs and the growing likelihood of an economic recession, U.S. consumer demand for clothing may decline significantly, potentially leading to the cancellation of many sourcing orders.

Second, apparel imports have become more expensive. Measured in dollars per square meters equivalent (SME), the unit price of U.S. apparel imports averaged $3.06/SME in the first two months of 2025, up from $3.03/SME a year ago (or a 1.3% increase). The unit price of U.S. apparel imports from many leading Asian countries rose at a notably higher rate, including China (up 2.9%), Vietnam (up 3.6%), and Bangladesh (up 2.6%), as well as those from Mexico (up 4.7%) and CAFTA-DR (up 0.6%). This result reflected the growing pressure of sourcing and production costs facing U.S. fashion companies and their suppliers, driven by rising labor costs and raw material prices among other factors. Indeed, if Trump’s reciprocal tariffs ultimately take effect, import prices could increase even more significantly.

Third, U.S. fashion companies’ sourcing diversification efforts appeared to slow amid rising uncertainty. In February 2025, Asian countries collectively accounted for 71.5% of the total value of U.S. apparel imports—unchanged from a year earlier. Similarly, in the first two months of 2025, the top five suppliers (China, Vietnam, Bangladesh, Cambodia, and India) made up 63.7% of total apparel imports by value, up from 59.7% during the same period in 2024. Even China’s market share remained largely stable at 18.4% in value and 32% in quantity, compared to a year ago.

These figures suggest that U.S. fashion companies somehow have become more hesitant to adjust their sourcing base in response to the universal tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, which target nearly all U.S. trading partners. As a result, U.S. fashion companies may find the sourcing diversification strategies no longer as effective as in the past in effectively mitigating their sourcing risks.

Meanwhile, data from the United Nations (UN Comtrade) show that Asian countries’ dependence on the U.S. market for apparel exports varied. In 2024, Vietnam, Sri Lanka, and ASEAN members exported about 40% of their apparel to the U.S., whereas the U.S. accounted for only about 20% of China’s and Bangladesh’s total apparel exports to the world. At the same time, the U.S. remained the single largest export market for Mexico and CAFTA-DR members, due to the integrated Western Hemisphere textile and apparel supply chain.

Fourth, no evidence shows that the current trading environment has benefited from near-shoring from the Western Hemisphere. On the contrary, measured in quantity, in February 2025, only 7.6% of U.S. apparel imports came from CAFTA-DR members, a notable drop from 9.6% a year ago. Similarly, Mexico accounted for 2.3% of U.S. apparel imports in February 2025, also lower than 2.4% a year earlier.

As a silver lining, the utilization rate of CAFTA-DR reached 81.1% in 2025 (January to February), much higher than 73.8% over the same period in 2024. About 75.3% of U.S. apparel imports from CAFTA-DR in 2025 (January to February) complied with the yarn-forward rules of origin compared to 67.4% a year ago. However, the use of “short-supply” remained low–only about 2.0% in 2025 so far.

by Dr. Sheng Lu

Related analysis: Lu, S. (2025). Patterns of U.S. Apparel Imports in 2024. Global Textile Academy, International Trade Centre, Geneva, Switzerland.

State of U.S. Textile and Apparel Manufacturing, Employment and Trade (updated April 2025)

Textile and apparel manufacturing in the U.S. has significantly decreased over the past decades due to factors such as automation, import competition, and the changing U.S. comparative advantages for related products. However, thanks to companies’ ongoing restructuring strategies and their strategic use of globalization, the U.S. textile and apparel manufacturing sector has stayed relatively stable in recent years. For example, the value of U.S. yarns and fabrics manufacturing (NAICS 313) totaled $24 billion in 2023 (the latest data available), up from $23.3 billion in 2018 (or up 2.8%). Over the same period, U.S. made-up textiles (NAICS 314) and apparel production (NAICS 315) moderately declined by only 1.8% and 1.6%.

More importantly, the U.S. textile and apparel manufacturing sector is evolving. Several important trends are worth watching:

First, “Made in the USA” increasingly focuses on textile products, particularly high-tech industrial textiles that are not intended for apparel manufacturing purposes. Specifically, textile products (NAICS 313+314) accounted for over 83% of the total output of the U.S. textile and apparel industry as of 2023, much higher than only 56% in 1998 (U.S. Census, 2025). Textiles and apparel “Made in the USA” are growing particularly fast in some product categories that are high-tech driven, such as medical textiles, protective clothing, specialty and industrial fabrics, and non-woven. These products are also becoming the new growth engine of U.S. textile exports. Notably, between 2019 and 2022, the value of U.S. “nonwoven fabric” (NAICS 31323) production increased by 12.32%, much higher than the 1.15% average growth of the textile industry (NAICS 313). Similarly, while U.S. textile exports decreased by 13.75% between 2019 and 2024, “nonwoven fabric” exports surged by 10.48%--including nearly 40% that went to market outside the Western Hemisphere (U.S. International Trade Commission, 2025).

Second, U.S. apparel manufacturers today are primarily micro-factories, and they supplement but are not in a position to replace imports. As of 2021 (the latest data available), over 76% of U.S.-based apparel mills (NAICS 315) had fewer than 10 employees, while only 0.7% had more than 500 employees. In comparison, contracted garment factories of U.S. fashion companies in Asia, particularly in developing countries like Bangladesh, typically employ over 1,000 or even 5,000 workers.

Instead of making garments in large volumes, most U.S.-based apparel factories are used to produce samples or prototypes for brands and retailers. In other words, replacing global sourcing with domestic production is not a realistic option for U.S. fashion brands and retailers in the 21st-century global economy. Nor are U.S. fashion companies showing interest in shifting their business strategies from focusing on “designing + managing supply chain+ marketing” back to manufacturing.

Meanwhile, due to mergers and acquisitions (M&A) and to leverage economies of scale, approximately 5% of U.S. textile mills (NAICS313) had more than 500 employees as of 2021–this is a significant number, considering that textile manufacturing is a highly capital-intensive process.

Third, employment in the U.S. textile and apparel manufacturing sector continued to decline, with improved productivity and technology being critical drivers. As of 2024, employment in the U.S. textile and apparel manufacturing sector (NAICS 313, 314, and 315) totaled 270,700, a decrease of 18.4% from 33,190 in 2019. Notably, U.S. textile and apparel workers had become more productive overall—the labor productivity index of U.S. textile mills (NAICS 313) increased from 89.7 in 2019 to 94.4 in 2023, and the index of U.S. apparel mills (NAICS 315) increased from 105.8 to 110.78 over the same period.

On the other hand, clothing retailers (NAICS 4481) accounted for over 75.7% of employment in the U.S. textile and apparel sector in 2024.

Fourth, international trade, BOTH import and export, supports textiles and apparel “Made in the USA.” On the one hand, U.S. textile and apparel exports exceeded $12.5 billion in 2024, accounting for more than 30% of domestic production as of 2023 (NAICS 313, 314 and 315). Thanks to regional free trade agreements, particularly the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) and the Dominican Republic-Central America Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA-DR), the Western Hemisphere stably accounted for over 70% of U.S. textile and apparel exports over the past decades. However, for specific products such as industrial textiles, markets in the rest of the world, especially Asia and Europe, also become increasingly important. Thus, lowering trade barriers for U.S. products in strategically significant export markets serves the interest of the U.S. textile and apparel industry.

On the other hand, imports support textiles and apparel “Made in the USA” as well. A 2023 study found that among the manufacturers in the “Made in the USA” database managed by the U.S. Department of Commerce Office of Textile and Apparel, nearly 20% of apparel and fabric mills explicitly say they utilized imported components. Partially, smaller U.S. textile and apparel manufacturers appear to be more likely to use imported components–whereas 20% of manufacturers with less than 50 employees used imported input, only 10.2% of those with 50-499 employees and 7.7% with 500 or more employees did so. The results indicate the necessity of supporting small and medium-sized (SME) U.S. textile and apparel manufacturers to more easily access their needed textile materials by lowering trade barriers like tariffs.

By Sheng Lu

Apparel Import Tariff Rates around the World (updated March 2025)

Apparel products are often subject to high tariffs for various reasons. In developed countries such as the United States, apparel has long been considered an “import-sensitive” sector, with relatively high tariff rates imposed primarily to “protect” specific domestic interest groups with political influences.

However, as importers, not exporters, pay the tariffs, heavy import duties have been a significant concern for US fashion companies for decades. According to data from the US International Trade Commission (USITC), in 2024, apparel (HS chapters 61 and 62) accounted for about 2.5 percent of total US imports but contributed approximately 15.6 percent of total tariff duties. Likewise, US fashion companies paid $11.9 billion in tariffs on apparel imports in 2024, an increase from $11.6 billion in 2023. The average applied tariff rate for apparel items reached 14.6% in 2024, a notable increase from 13.7% before the imposition of Section 301 tariffs on Chinese products. Additionally, due to retail markups, every $1 in tariffs could result in a $1.50 to $2 increase in the final retail price.

Meanwhile, developing countries, especially those least developed, also often impose high tariffs on apparel—either to protect their nascent domestic industries from import competition or to generate government revenues. For example, in Africa, the apparel import tariff rate commonly exceeds 35% as of 2023 (the latest data available).

In February 2025, President Trump announced the imposition of a so-called “reciprocal tariff,” aiming to “match” the tariff rates that other countries impose on US exports, thereby promoting “fairer trade practices.” However, the details of the “reciprocal tariff” idea remain highly uncertain.

In theory, if strict “tariff matching” is required on a product-by-product basis, US apparel imports from most leading sourcing destinations—particularly those in Asia without a free trade agreement with the US–would face a significant increase in tariffs. Similarly, beneficiary countries under the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) could face a similar issue, as AGOA is a trade preference program that does not provide duty-free market access for US products in Africa. If apparel exports from AGOA-member countries to the US were subjected to the same 35%+ tariff rates that US products currently face in their markets, it would be a devastating scenario.

By Sheng Lu

(note: this post is not open for comment/discussion)

How Tariffs Affect U.S. Apparel Import Prices and Retail Prices? Evidence from Monthly Trade Data (2015-2024)

According to the “America First Trade Policy” released in January 2025, the Trump administration aims to leverage tariffs to achieve various policy objectives, from reducing the U.S. trade deficit to countering “unfair” trading practices.

On February 1, 2025, the Trump Administration further announced the implementation of a 25% punitive tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico, along with an additional 10% punitive tariff on goods from China, in addition to the existing duties. With over 98% of clothing sold in the U.S. imported from abroad, U.S. fashion apparel companies are likely to be among the hardest hit by the tariff increase, particularly since Mexico and China are two of the leading apparel-sourcing destinations for the country.

This study aims to explore the dynamic relationship between U.S. apparel import tariffs, U.S. apparel import prices, and U.S. apparel retail prices. Since tariff rates, import prices, and retail prices are interrelated, a vector autoregression model (VAR) was used to analyze their interactions. The analysis was based on monthly data from January 2015 to November 2024 (latest data available), including:

U.S. apparel tariff rate (data source: USITC; tariff rate=value of calculated duties/custom values)
Price index of U.S. apparel imports (data source: St. Lous Federal Reserve; January 2015=100)
Price index of U.S. apparel retail price (data source: St. Louis Federal Reserve; January 2015=100)
Index of U.S. apparel retail sales (data source: St. Louis Federal Reserve; January 2015=100)
Consumer Price Index for all U.S. urban consumers (data source: St. Louis Federal Reserve; January 2015=100)

The results show that:

First, from January 2015 to November 2024, the average U.S. apparel tariff rate ranged from 12% to 17%. The fluctuation of the tariff rate during that period was primarily caused by the U.S. imposition of Section 301 punitive tariffs on imports from China, along with fashion companies shifting their sourcing from China to other countries, including members of U.S. free trade agreements.

Second, the average price of U.S. apparel imports rose by approximately 6% from January 2015 to November 2024, which aligns with the U.S. apparel retail price increase of 4%. However, this increase was significantly lower than the 34% rise in the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the same period. This pattern shows that despite overall inflation and higher operational costs, apparel exporters and U.S. retailers remained cautious about increasing prices due to intense market competition.

Third, the impulse response function (IRF) indicates that a positive tariff shock (i.e., a tariff increase) would lead to a rise in the U.S. apparel retail price. However, the magnitude of this effect is moderate, with the impact being most felt two months later. Specifically, a one-standard-deviation increase in tariffs would result in a 0.16 standard deviation increase in retail prices during Period 3. In other words, the price effect of the tariff increase typically appears in about two months. However, U.S. fashion retailers usually do not transfer the entire burden of tariffs to consumers, likely because of fierce competition in the market.

Fourth, the impulse response function (IRF) indicates that a positive tariff shock (i.e., a tariff increase) would lead to a slight decline in U.S. apparel import prices. This price decrease would also persist for about three months. Specifically, a one-standard-deviation increase in tariffs would result in approximately a 0.01 standard deviation decrease in apparel import prices through Period 4. This result aligns with previous studies indicating that following the implementation of Section 301 punitive tariffs in 2018, some Chinese exporters agreed to reduce their selling prices to keep sourcing orders.

Fifth, the impulse response function (IRF) further shows that a positive tariff shock (i.e., a tariff increase) could hurt U.S. apparel retail sales in the short to medium term. Specifically, a one-standard-deviation increase in tariffs would lead to approximately a 0.82-2.33 standard deviation decrease in U.S. apparel retail sales from Period 3 through Period 5. This result may be driven by higher selling prices, suppressing consumer spending on clothing.

Additionally, the variance decomposition analysis reveals that, in the short to medium term, about 50% to 80% of the variation in U.S. retail prices is explained by its own past values, underscoring the persistence of retailers’ pricing practices. Meanwhile, U.S. apparel retail sales account for about 27% of the changes in U.S. apparel retail prices. In comparison, apparel tariff changes explained only about 5% of the retail price fluctuations. In other words, market factors, particularly consumer demand, play a more significant role in shaping fashion companies’ pricing decisions than tariffs.

In summary, the study’s findings confirm the interconnections between apparel tariff rates, U.S. apparel import prices, and U.S. retail prices, although these relationships turn out to be more complex and nuanced than previously suggested. It is important to note that only apparel imports from China were subject to tariff increases during the examined period in this study. If tariffs were to increase on apparel products from a broader range of countries during Trump’s second term, the economic impact on U.S. apparel retail prices could be much more significant and persistent.

By Sheng Lu

Gap Inc.’s Evolving Apparel Sourcing Base: 2021-2024

Gap CEO talks tariff impacts (Feb 2025)

Established in 1969, Gap Inc. is a leading American clothing retailer that operates several prominent brands, including Old Navy, Gap, Banana Republic, and Athleta, catering to diverse consumer segments.

The following analysis is based on Gap Inc.’s publicly released factory list. Only factories identified as producing “apparel” products were included in the analysis.

First, like several other leading U.S. fashion companies, Gap Inc. maintained a geographically diverse global sourcing base but reduced the number of factories it sourced from between 2021 and 2024. Specifically, as of October 2024 (the latest data available), Gap Inc. sourced apparel from 24 countries, an increase from 21 countries as of March 2021. Gap Inc.’s apparel sourcing reached almost all continents, including Asia, the Americas, Europe, and Africa.

However, between March 2021 and October 2024, Gap Inc. decreased the number of apparel factories it contracts with from 548 to 502, a reduction of 46. Most of the cuts occurred in China (down 40 factories), Vietnam (down 32 factories), and Cambodia (down 8 factories). This pattern aligned with the findings of other industry studies, which indicate that many U.S. fashion companies, particularly larger ones, are consolidating their vendor base to prioritize operational efficiency and strengthen the relationships with key vendors.

Second, Gap Inc. has significantly reduced its reliance on China and actively explored emerging sourcing destinations in the rest of Asia, Central America and beyond. According to Gap Inc.’s 2023 annual report (the latest available at the time of writing), its two largest vendors represented approximately 9 percent and 7 percent of the total dollar amount of the company’s purchases. In value terms, in 2023, approximately 29 percent of Gap Inc.’s products were sourced from Vietnam, followed by Indonesia (18 percent).

While China remained the largest source of U.S. apparel imports according to official trade statistics, China now plays a relatively minor role in supplying finished garments for Gap Inc. As of October 2024, the company sourced apparel from 36 factories in China, representing just 7.2 percent of its total apparel sourcing base, making China only the sixth-largest supplier after Vietnam, India, Indonesia, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka. In an interview conducted in early 2025 (the video above), Gap Inc.’s CEO disclosed that less than 10 percent of the company’s products are sourced from China.

On the other hand, between March 2021 and October 2024, Gap Inc. expanded its sourcing network beyond the traditional top three (China, Vietnam, and Bangladesh), with significant growth in other parts of Asia and Central America, led by India (added 8 more factories) and Guatemala (added 9 more factories). In 2022, Gap Inc. pledged to source around $150 million in apparel products each year from Central America by 2025.

Third, Gap Inc.’s apparel sourcing base varies by product category. For example, approximately 45% of the company’s contract factories producing denim and woven bottoms were located in Vietnam and Bangladesh, likely due to the availability of cotton and a relatively abundant low-cost labor force. In contrast, factories in Sri Lanka primarily manufactured intimates, performance wear, and swimwear (IPSS) for Gap Inc. Meanwhile, half of the company’s sweater factories were located in China, largely due to the complex manufacturing process and raw material requirements for these products. Additionally, India played a critical role as a sourcing base for Gap Inc.’s woven apparel.

Furthermore, Gap Inc.’s contract garment factories worldwide vary in size, reflecting the company’s diverse sourcing needs. Specifically, in Asia, garment factories in China are typically small or medium-sized, with fewer than 1,000 workers (94.3%). In contrast, nearly 80% of Gap Inc.’s contract garment factories in Bangladesh have more than 1,000 workers, with similar patterns observed in Vietnam (48.7%), India (50%), Indonesia (63.2%), and Pakistan (57.1%). This pattern aligns with other industry studies suggesting that U.S. fashion companies source apparel products from China primarily for orders with relatively small minimum order quantities (MOQs) and those requiring a great variety.

Meanwhile, most garment factories in Central American countries producing products for Gap Inc. have fewer than 1,000 workers, such as Guatemala (100%), Nicaragua (71%), Haiti (67%), and El Salvador (100%). A similar pattern is observed in other regions, such as Egypt (67%) and Turkey (82%). This result suggests that Gap Inc. may still need to rely on Asia to fulfill orders for large-volume items, as it takes time to expand production capacity in other regions.

by Sheng Lu

VF Corporation’s Evolving Apparel Sourcing Base: 2023-2024

VF Corporation (VF) is one of the largest apparel companies in the US, with an estimated global sales revenue to exceed $10 billion in 2024. VF owns several well-known apparel and outdoor performance brands, including The North Face, Timberland, and Icebreaker. VF also has a global presence. According to its latest annual report, in Fiscal 2024, “VF derived 52% of its revenues from the Americas, 33% from Europe, and 15% from Asia-Pacific.”

The following analysis is based on VF’s publicly released supplier list. Only factories identified as producing “apparel” products and related textile raw materials are included in the analysis.

First, while VF maintained a geographically diverse global sourcing base, it reduced the number of factories it sourced from between 2023 and 2024. Specifically, as of Q3 2024 (the latest data available), VF sourced apparel from 36 countries, the same number as in Q1 2023. These countries spanned almost all continents, including Asia, the Americas, Europe, and Africa. Similarly, over the same period, VF sourced textile raw materials for apparel production—including factories producing polymers—from approximately 30 countries.

However, between Q1 2023 and Q3 2024, VF reduced the number of apparel factories it contracts with from 463 to 426. The number of textile mills VF contracts also declined, from 665 to 546. This pattern aligned with the findings of other industry studies, which indicate that many U.S. fashion companies, particularly larger ones, are consolidating their vendor base to reduce sourcing risks and enhance operational efficiency.

Additionally, VF’s annual reports indicate that no single supplier accounted for more than 6% of its total cost of goods sold during Fiscal Year 2024, the same as in 2023, but lower than 7% in Fiscal Year 2021.

Second, in line with macro trade data, Asia served as VF’s largest apparel sourcing base in Q3 2024, led by China (23.1 percent) and Vietnam (11.5 percent). Specifically, as of Q3 2024, approximately 55.3 percent of VF’s garment factories were located in Asia, an increase from 48.8 percent in Q1 2023. Meanwhile, VF is also adjusting its apparel sourcing strategy within the Asia region. For example, between 2023 and 2024, VF decreased the number of garment factories it worked with in China (down 5), Bangladesh (down 12), and India (down 17), while adding more contract factories in Vietnam (up 36), Cambodia (up 7), and Indonesia (up 4). The pattern indicates that while VF may attempt to reduce its “China exposure,” it also actively seeks new sourcing opportunities within Asia.

Conversely, in Q3 2024, around 21.2 percent of VF’s garment factories were based in the Western Hemisphere, a decrease from 27.0 percent in Q1 2023. In most situations, VF worked with about 10-20 garment factories in each Western Hemisphere country. Furthermore, from 2023 to 2024, VF cut the number of garment factories in Mexico (down 16) and the United States (down 10), indicating that expanding near-shoring and on-shoring was not the company’s preferred strategy in the current environment.

Third, compared to garments, VF’s supply of textile raw materials relies even more heavily on Asia, especially China. Specifically, as of Q3 2024, approximately 83.5 percent of VF’s textile raw material suppliers were located in Asia, the same as in Q1 2023. Notably, China represented nearly half of VF’s textile material suppliers in Q3 2024, including 41.2 percent of textile yarn and fabric mills and 50.9 percent of trim mills. Although VF reduced the number of textile mills in China from Q1 2023 to Q3 2024, China’s share of VF’s total textile raw material supplier base remained the same. Overall, the pattern aligns with previous research suggesting that finding alternative sourcing bases for textile raw materials outside of China and Asia will be more difficult and time-consuming for US fashion companies, considering the capital-intensive nature of making textile products.

Fourth, VF’s contract garment factories worldwide varied in size, reflecting the company’s diverse sourcing needs. Specifically, in Asia, garment factories in China typically were small and medium-sized, with 11-100 workers (43.9 percent) or 101-500 workers (33.7 percent). In contrast, nearly 90 percent of VF’s contract garment factories in Bangladesh had more than 1,000 workers, with similar patterns observed in Vietnam (52.2 percent), Cambodia (50.0 percent), Indonesia (63.2 percent), and Pakistan (100 percent). These findings suggest that VF may use China as a sourcing base for relatively small, diverse orders while relying on other Asian countries with lower labor costs for high-volume production.

Meanwhile, in the Americas and Africa, VF’s contract garment factories in Haiti, Honduras, El Salvador, Kenya, and Jordan included more large-scale operations with over 1,000 workers. These locations could serve as emerging alternatives to sourcing from Asia, especially for specific categories. In contrast, VF’s contract garment factories in Mexico, the US, and Guatemala featured many medium and small operations, which are more likely to fulfill replenishment orders or produce specialized products.

by Sheng Lu

New Study: How Has the Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act (UFLPA) Affected U.S. Apparel Import?

Implemented in June 2022, the Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act (UFLPA) prohibits U.S. companies from importing apparel wholly or in part produced in China’s Xinjiang region. UFLPA could significantly alter U.S. apparel import patterns as fashion companies have begun or anticipate adjusting their sourcing base to comply with the law and mitigate the forced labor risks in the supply chain.

This study quantitatively evaluated the impacts of the UFLPA on U.S. apparel imports nearly two years after the law’s implementation. Unlike existing studies primarily focusing on UFLPA’s political or legal aspects, this study’s findings would enhance our understanding of the economic and trade implications of the new law.

A panel regression model was adopted to evaluate the quantitative impact of UFLPA on U.S. apparel imports based on data collected from OTEXA (2024) and USITC (2024), the most authentic government data source. Four countries in three categories were included in the study: 1) China; 2) Vietnam and Bangladesh representing top Asian apparel exporting countries other than China; 3) member countries of the Central America Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA-DR) representing near-shoring sourcing destinations. The annual trade activities of these four countries from 2010 to 2023 (the latest available) were used for the analysis.

The panel regression model suggests several interesting findings*:

Firstly, the results showed that holding other factors constant, U.S. cotton apparel imports from China decreased significantly by approximately 350 million square meter equivalent (SME) annually following UFLPA’s implementation. In other words, the result confirmed that UFLPA had negatively affected U.S. cotton apparel imports from China. This result is far from surprising as Xinjiang accounted for nearly 90% of China’s cotton production, causing significant forced labor risks associated with importing cotton apparel from China.

Secondly, holding other factors constant, U.S. cotton apparel imports from Vietnam and Bangladesh and CAFTA-DR also respectively decreased by approximately 81 million SME, 51 million SME, and 20 million SME annually after UFLPA’s implementation in 2022. The results revealed U.S. fashion companies’ concerns about UFLPA compliance risks associated with sourcing from countries other than China, particularly Asia, due to their heavy reliance on cotton yarns and fabrics from China through a highly integrated regional supply chain.

Thirdly, the results revealed a more significant positive relationship between U.S. cotton exports to China, Vietnam, Bangladesh, and CAFTA-DR countries and U.S. cotton apparel imports from these countries after UFLPA’s implementation. Related, trade data also showed a declining ratio of U.S. cotton apparel imports from China, Vietnam, Bangladesh, and CAFTA-DR countries relative to these countries’ cotton imports from the U.S. This pattern implies a closer alignment in the trade flow of raw cotton from the U.S. to these countries and the return of finished cotton apparel to the U.S. It could be the case that leading apparel exporting countries increasingly used US cotton after UFLPA to mitigate the forced labor risks.

Additionally, there was a negative relationship between U.S. cotton apparel imports from China, Vietnam, Bangladesh, and CAFTA-DR members and U.S. MMF apparel imports from these countries. In other words, cotton apparel and MMF apparel appear to compete within the total U.S. apparel import market. However, UFLPA’s implementation has not significantly impacted the relationship. Nonetheless, MMF apparel has accounted for a growing share of China’s total apparel exports to the United States after UFLPA’s implementation (down from 46% in 2010 to only 19% in 2023).

The study’s findings revealed a broad trade impact of UFLPA’s implementation that goes far beyond China. Notably, cotton apparel exporters from other Asian countries and those in the Western Hemisphere also appeared to be negatively affected by the new law. Also, unlike theoretical prediction, no clear evidence shows that UFLPA has significantly expanded the near-shoring of U.S. cotton apparel imports from the Western Hemisphere, such as CAFTA-DR members.

Meanwhile, the results call for further investigation of the net impact of UFLPA on U.S. cotton exports. While UFLPA may help U.S. cotton gain more shares in the global marketplace, the reduced U.S. import demand for cotton apparel due to forced labor risk concerns may also unexpectedly “shrink the pie size.”

*:The fixed effects (FE) model was selected for the study based on the likelihood ratio test results (p<.01). The result of the F-test suggests the FE model is statistically significant at the 99% confidence level (p<.01). The value of R2 exceeds 0.90, indicating an overall high goodness-of-fit of the panel regression. All the independent variables were statistically significant at the 99% confidence level (p<.01).

By Sheng Lu and Emilie Delaye

Note: The study will be presented at the 2024 International Textile and Apparel Association (ITAA) annual conference in November 2024.

[This blog post is not open for comment]

New Study: PVH Corporation’s Evolving Apparel Sourcing Strategies (updated Septmeber 2024)

PVH Corporation (PVH), which owns well-known brands including Calvin Klein, Tommy Hilfiger, Van Heusen, Arrow, and Izod, is one of the largest US fashion companies with nearly $9.2 billion in sales revenues in 2022.

By leveraging PVH’s publically released factory lists, this article analyzes the company’s detailed sourcing strategies and changes from 2021 to 2022. Key findings:

Trend 1: PVH adopts a diverse apparel sourcing base and continues to work with more vendors. Specifically, in 2022, PVH sourced apparel from as many as 37 countries in Asia, Europe, America, the Middle East, and Africa, the same as in 2021. Despite not expanding the number of countries it sources from, PVH increased its total number of vendors from 503 in 2021 to 553 in 2022, highlighting the company’s ongoing commitment to diversifying its sourcing base.

Trend 2: Asia is PVH’s dominant sourcing base for finished garments and textile raw materials.

Specifically, about 56.2% of PVH’s apparel suppliers were Asia-based in 2022, followed by the EU (20.3%). Compared with a year ago, PVH even added twenty new Asia-based factories to its supplier list in 2022, suggesting no intention of reducing sourcing from the region. Moreover, From 2021 to 2022, as many as 83% of PVH’s raw material suppliers were Asia-based, far exceeding any other regions.

Trend 3: PVH’s China sourcing strategies are evolving and more complicated than simply “reducing China exposure.”

First, PVH continued to work with MORE Chinese factories. Specifically, between 2021 and 2022, PVH added 17 Chinese factories to its apparel supplier list, more than other countries. However, the expansion could be because of PVH’s growing sales in China.
Second, PVH’s garment factories in China are smaller than their peers in other Asian countries. For example, in 2022, most PVH’s contracted garment factories in top Asian supplying countries, such as Bangladesh (87.5%), Vietnam (63.3%), and Sri Lanka (65.3%), had more than 1,000 workers. In comparison, only 11.3% of PVH’s Chinese vendors had 1,000 workers, and more than 62.5% had fewer than 500 workers. The result suggests that PVH treats China as an apparel sourcing base for flexibility and agility, particularly those orders that may include a greater variety of products in relatively smaller quantities.
Further, PVH often priced apparel “Made in China” higher than those sourced from the rest of Asia.

Trend 4: PVH actively used “emerging” sourcing destinations outside Asia. Other than those top Asian suppliers, PVH’s apparel sourcing base includes several countries in America, the EU, and Africa that deserve more attention, including Portugal, Brazil, Tunisia, and Turkey. Overall, PVH sourced from these countries for various reasons, from serving local consumers, seeking sourcing flexibility, accessing raw materials, and lowering sourcing costs.

by Sheng Lu and Ally Botwinick

Further reading: Lu, Sheng & Botwinick, Ally (2023). US fashion companies’ evolving sourcing strategies – a PVH case study. Just-Style. Retrieved from https://www.just-style.com/features/us-fashion-companies-evolving-sourcing-strategies-a-pvh-case-study/

PVH’s market shares in the China apparel retail market

(discussion for this post is closed)

China’s Textile and Clothing Export: Latest Patterns and Trends (updated August 2024)

The newly released World Trade Organization statistics and data from the United Nations (UNComtrade) suggest several patterns of China’s textile and clothing exports.

Firstly, while China remained the world’s largest clothing exporter in 2023, rising geopolitical tensions and Western fashion companies’ ongoing de-risking efforts pose increasing challenges to its export outlook.

To some extent, 2023 wasn’t too bad for clothing “Made in China.” In value, China’s clothing exports totaled $164 billion, accounting for 31.6% of the world—unchanged from 2022. While China’s clothing exports decreased by 9.7 percent in 2023 compared to the previous year due to weaker market demand, this performance was better than most other top ten suppliers, including Bangladesh (down 16 percent), Vietnam (down 12 percent), India (down 13 percent), and Indonesia (down 17 percent).

However, China’s clothing exporters face significant challenges ahead. Despite maintaining its overall market share, China is losing momentum in nearly all key Western clothing markets, including the United States, the European Union, the UK, and Canada. This trend is primarily driven by perceived heightened sourcing risks associated with China, ranging from concerns over forced labor in the Xinjiang region to escalating geopolitical tensions involving the country.

For example, according to the 2024 Fashion Industry Benchmarking Study released by the US Fashion Industry Association (USFIA) in July, a record 43 percent of surveyed leading US fashion companies reported sourcing less than 10 percent of their apparel products from China in 2024, compared to only 18 percent in 2018. Likewise, nearly 60 percent of respondents no longer use China as their top apparel supplier in 2024, much higher than the 25-30 percent range before the pandemic. Additionally, nearly 80 percent of respondents plan to further reduce their apparel sourcing from China over the next two years through 2026, citing perceived high sourcing risks as the primary concern.

Secondly, China has been diversifying its clothing exports beyond traditional Western markets in response to the “de-risking” movement. For example, the US, EU, UK, and Canada combined accounted for 43-45 percent of China’s clothing exports in 2023, lower than over 50 percent in the past. In comparison, these four Western markets typically accounted for 70 to 90 percent of an Asian country’s clothing exports. Meanwhile, since 2021, Asian economies, especially members of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and Africa, have become more important export markets for China. Nevertheless, since RCEP members and those in Africa primarily consist of developing economies with ambitions to expand their own clothing production and exports, the long-term growth prospects for their demand for “Made in China” clothing remain uncertain.

Thirdly, China’s weakened economy could lead to an increased supply of low-cost Chinese clothing in the global market.

Despite being known as the world’s largest clothing exporter, between 2013 and 2022 (the latest available data), over 70%–80% of clothing produced in China was consumed domestically, with only about 20%–30% being exported. However, as China’s economic growth has slowed and consumer spending on clothing has stalled, more clothing made in China could enter the international market and intensify the price competition. Notably, between June 2023 and June 2024, the average unit price of US apparel imports from China decreased unusually by 7.6 percent, signaling that an increased supply of Chinese clothing began to suppress market prices. Likewise, it doesn’t seem reasonable that the unit price of U.S. apparel imports from China was 40% lower than that of imports from Bangladesh in the first half of 2024. Thus, the growing influx of cheap Chinese products raises the risk of market disruptions, potentially leading to additional trade tensions and restrictive measures against Chinese products.

Fourthly, there is an early sign that Asian countries have become more cautious about using Chinese yarns and fabrics. China remained a key supplier of textile raw materials to leading apparel-exporting countries in Asia. However, Asian countries appeared to be sourcing fewer yarns and fabrics from China in 2023, possibly due to the enforcement of anti-forced labor laws, such as the Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act (UFLPA), and the perceived risks associated with sourcing Chinese cotton. Instead, more Asian countries’ yarns and fabrics now came from regional suppliers other than China.

by Sheng Lu

Additional reading: China has turned inward to sell Xinjiang cotton after a trade ban. Will it be enough? (South China Morning Post, August 11, 2024).

2024 USFIA Fashion Industry Benchmarking Study Released

The full report is HERE

Key findings of this year’s report:

#1 Respondents reported growing sourcing risks of various kinds in 2024, from navigating an uncertain U.S. economy, managing forced labor risks, and responding to shipping and supply chain disruptions to facing rising geopolitical tensions and trade protectionism.

Over half of the respondents ranked “Inflation and economic outlook in the U.S.” and “Managing the forced labor risks in the supply chain” as their top business challenges in 2024.
The issues of “Shipping delays and supply chain disruptions” and “Managing geopolitics and other political instability related to sourcing” have newly emerged among respondents’ top five concerns in 2024.
About 45 percent of respondents rated “Protectionist trade policy agenda in the United States” as a top five business challenge this year, a jump from only 15 percent in 2023.

#2 U.S. fashion companies leverage sourcing diversification to respond to the growing sourcing risks and market uncertainty in 2024.

Nearly 70 percent of large-sized companies with 1,000+ employees reported sourcing from ten or more countries, significantly higher than the 45-55 percent range in the past few years. It also has become more common for medium to small-sized companies with fewer than 1,000 employees to source apparel from six or more countries in 2024 than in the past.
Nearly 80 percent of respondents plan to source from the same number of countries or even more countries through 2026, aiming to mitigate sourcing risks more effectively. However, their approaches differ at the firm level—some U.S. fashion companies plan to work with fewer vendors, while others intend to source from more.

#3 Managing the risk of forced labor in the supply chain continues to be a top priority for U.S. fashion companies in 2024.

U.S. fashion companies have adopted a comprehensive approach to comply with UFLPA and mitigate forced labor risks. On average, each surveyed company has implemented approximately six distinct practices across various aspects of their business operations this year, up from an average of five in 2023.
More than 90 percent of respondents say they are “Making more efforts to map and understand our supply chain, including the sources of fibers and yarns contained in finished products.” Notably, nearly 90 percent of respondents report mapping their entire apparel supply chains from Tier 1 to Tier 3 in 2024, a significant increase from about 40 percent in the past few years.
More than 80 percent of respondents say they “intentionally reduce sourcing from high-risk countries” in response to the UFLPA’s implementation. Another 75 percent of respondents explicitly state that their company has “banned the use of Chinese cotton in the apparel products” they carry.
About 45 percent of respondents have been actively “exploring sourcing destinations beyond Asia to mitigate forced labor risks.” However, this year, fewer respondents (i.e., under 10 percent) plan to cut apparel sourcing from Asian countries other than China directly, implying a more targeted and balanced approach to mitigating risks and meeting sourcing needs.
Based on field experience, respondents call for greater transparency in U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP)’s UFLPA enforcement, specifically in shipment detention and release decisions and in targeted entities and commodities information. Respondents also suggested that CBP reduce repeated detentions, focus on “bad actors” only, clarify enforcement on recycled cotton, and continue to partner with U.S. fashion companies on UFLPA enforcement.

#4 U.S. fashion companies remain deeply concerned about the deteriorating U.S.-China bilateral relationship and plan to further “reduce China exposure” to mitigate risks.

A record 43 percent of respondents sourced less than 10 percent of their apparel products from China this year, compared to only 18 percent in 2018. Likewise, nearly 60 percent of respondents no longer use China as their top apparel supplier in 2024, much higher than the 25-30 percent range before the pandemic.
Respondents rated China as economically competitive as an apparel sourcing base compared to many of its Asian competitors regarding vertical manufacturing capability, relatively low minimum order quantity (MOQ) requirements, flexibility and agility, sourcing costs, and speed to market. However, non-economic factors, particularly the perceived high risks of forced labor and geopolitical tensions, are driving U.S. fashion companies to move sourcing out of China. This trend applies to surveyed U.S. fashion companies selling products in China.
Nearly 80 percent of respondents plan to reduce their apparel sourcing from China further over the next two years through 2026. Consistent with last year’s results, large-size U.S. fashion companies with 1,000+ employees currently sourcing more than 10 percent of their apparel products from China are among the most eager to “de-risk.”

#5 U.S. fashion companies are actively exploring new sourcing opportunities, with a particular focus on emerging destinations in Asia and the Western Hemisphere.

This year, more respondents reported sourcing from India (89 percent utilization rate) than from Bangladesh (86 percent utilization rate) for the first time since we began the survey. Also, nearly 60 percent of respondents plan to expand apparel sourcing from India over the next two years, exceeding the planned expansion from any other Asian country.
For the second year in a row, three non-Asian countries made it to the top ten most utilized apparel sourcing destination list in 2024, including Guatemala (ranked 7th), Mexico (ranked 7th), and Egypt (ranked 10th). All three countries also witnessed an improved utilization rate in 2024 compared to last year’s survey results.
This year, a new record 52 percent of respondents plan to expand apparel sourcing from members of the Dominican Republic-Central American Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA-DR), over the next two years, up from 40 percent in 2023. However, most U.S. fashion companies consider expanding near-shoring from the Western Hemisphere as part of their overall sourcing diversification strategy. For example, nearly ALL companies that plan to increase sourcing from CAFTA-DR over the next two years also plan to increase sourcing from Asia.
75 percent of respondents identified the “lack of sufficient access to textile raw materials” as the main bottleneck preventing them from sourcing more apparel from CAFTA-DR members. Respondents say the local manufacturing capability for yarns and fabrics using fiber types other than cotton and polyester, such as spandex, nylon, viscose, rayon, and wool, was modest or low in the CAFTA-DR region, even when including the United States.
The U.S.-Mexico-Canada Trade Agreement (USMCA) entered into force on July 1, 2020, replacing the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). Within the context of expanding nearing-shoring from the Western Hemisphere, in 2024, about 65 percent of respondents reported sourcing from Mexico and Canada (or USMCA members), a noticeable increase from about 40 percent in 2019-2020. About 36 percent of respondents say their companies “expanded apparel sourcing from USMCA members because of the agreement.”

#6 Respondents underscore the importance of immediate renewal of AGOA before its expiration in September 2025 and extending the agreement for at least another ten years.

This year, respondents reported sourcing from seven AGOA members or countries in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), including Lesotho, Ethiopia (note: lost AGOA eligibility in 2022), Kenya, Madagascar, Mauritius, Tanzania, and Ghana, an increase from four countries in 2023, and six countries in 2022. Most respondents sourcing from AGOA in 2024 are typically large-scale U.S. fashion brands or retailers with 1,000+ employees. Generally, these companies treat AGOA as part of their extensive global sourcing network.
Over 86 percent of respondents support renewing AGOA for at least another ten years, and none object to the proposal. This reveals U.S. fashion companies’ strong support for the trade preference program and the non-controversial nature of continuing this agreement.
Over 70 percent of respondents say another 10-year renewal of AGOA is essential for their company to expand sourcing from the region.
About 30 percent of respondents reported that they had already held back sourcing from AGOA members due to the pending renewal of the agreement and associated policy uncertainty. This figure could increase to half of the respondents if AGOA is not renewed by the end of 2024.
Another 30 percent of respondents indicate that keeping the flexible rules of origin in AGOA, such as the “third country fabric provision” for least-developed members, is essential for their company to source from the region.

Other topics the report covered include:

5-year outlook for the U.S. fashion industry, including companies’ hiring plan by key positions
The competitiveness of major apparel sourcing destinations in 2024 regarding sourcing cost, speed to market, flexibility & agility, minimum order quantity (MOQ), vertical integration and local textile manufacturing capability, social and environmental compliance risks and geopolitical risks (assessed by respondents)
Respondents’ detailed sourcing portfolio in 2024 for garments and textile materials (i.e., yarns, fabrics and accessories)
Respondents’ latest strategies to mitigate forced labor risks in the supply chain and fashion companies’ suggestions for CBP’s UFLPA enforcement based on field experience
U.S. fashion companies’ latest social responsibility and sustainability practices related to sourcing
U.S. fashion companies’ trade policy priorities in 2024

About the study

This year’s benchmarking study was based on a survey of executives from 30 leading U.S. fashion companies from April to June 2024. The study incorporated a balanced mix of respondents representing various businesses in the U.S. fashion industry. Approximately 80 percent of respondents were self-identified retailers, 60 percent were self-identified brands, 41 percent were importers/wholesalers, and 3 percent were manufacturers.

The survey respondents included large U.S. fashion corporations and medium-sized companies. Around 80 percent of respondents reported having over 1,000 employees; the rest (20 percent) represented medium-sized companies with 100-999 employees.

New Study: Is Sub-Saharan Africa Ready to Serve as an Alternative Apparel Sourcing Destination to Asia for U.S. Fashion Companies? A Product-Level Analysis

Full paper: Lu, S. (2024), “Is Sub-Saharan Africa ready to serve as an alternative apparel-sourcing destination to Asia for US Fashion companies? A product-level analysis“, Competitiveness Review, Vol. ahead-of-print No. ahead-of-print. https://doi.org/10.1108/CR-03-2024-0041

Summary:

The prospect of Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) as an apparel-sourcing base for U.S. fashion companies has been a growing heated debate. On the one hand, U.S. fashion companies, driven by increasing geopolitical concerns and other market factors, were eager to diversify apparel sourcing away from Asia. The SSA region was often regarded as one of the most popular alternative sourcing destinations thanks to its large population, relatively low labor costs, and shorter shipping distance to U.S. ports compared to most Asian. The African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), a trade preference program enacted in 2000, in particular, allowed eligible apparel exports from SSA countries to enter the United States import duty-free, creating substantial financial incentives for U.S. fashion companies to source from the SSA region.

However, empirical trade data shows that U.S. apparel imports from SSA members have stagnated over the past decades without evident growth. Notably, with little change from 2010, SSA countries collectively accounted for only 1.8% of U.S. apparel imports in 2023, with no single SSA member achieving a market share of more than 1%. In contrast, over the same period, despite China’s declining market shares, the following five largest Asian suppliers—Vietnam, Bangladesh, India, Indonesia, and Cambodia—jointly accounted for 43.0% of U.S. apparel imports in 2023, a notable increase from 27.4% in 2010.

This study aims to evaluate SSA countries’ capacity to serve as an alternative apparel sourcing destination to Asian suppliers for US fashion companies. Specifically, the study examined the detailed product information of a total of 10,000 stock keeping units (SKUs) of clothing items sold in the U.S. retail market from January 2021 to December 2023. Half of these items were sourced from the six largest apparel-exporting countries in SSA: Lesotho, Kenya, Mauritius, Ethiopia, Madagascar, and Tanzania. Together, these countries accounted for over 96% of the value of U.S. apparel imports from the SSA region between 2021 and 2023. The remaining half came from China, Vietnam, Bangladesh, Cambodia, India, and Indonesia, the six largest Asian apparel exporters, which stably accounted for approximately 90% of U.S. apparel imports from Asia over the past decade.

Key findings:

First, the results revealed that U.S. fashion companies’ sourcing strategies for SSA countries appeared more subtle and complicated than simply treating the region as another low-cost sourcing destination, as suggested by previous studies. Instead, according to the results, U.S. fashion companies seemed to leverage SSA countries as suppliers of “niche products,” such as those relatively simple and basic apparel categories containing African cultural elements and targeting the luxury and premium market segment. Meanwhile, the demand for such products could be much smaller than regular apparel items sold in the value and mass market. This allows SSA countries to fulfill these smaller orders despite their limited production capacity, often family-owned or involving handmade processes.

Second, the study’s findings identified significant challenges for SSA countries serving as immediate alternatives to sourcing from Asia for U.S. fashion companies. While SSA countries could offer relatively low sourcing costs, the range of apparel products available for U.S. fashion companies to source from the SSA region remained significantly more limited than those from Asia. For example, results show that U.S. fashion companies preferred sourcing relatively basic and technologically simple categories like knitwear, T-shirts, and bottoms from SSA countries. However, imports from SSA countries offered more limited sizing and color choices and were less likely to include womenswear and relatively more sophisticated or specialized product categories such as outerwear and swimwear. As another example, U.S. apparel imports from SSA countries were primarily made of cotton and polyester, with less use of other fiber types, including nylon, rayon, viscose, wool, and those made from recycled textile materials (see table below).

Third, building on the previous point, the results call for new thinking on strengthening SSA countries’ genuine competitiveness as an apparel-sourcing destination. Over the past decades, trade preference programs such as AGOA have mainly focused on improving the price competitiveness of SSA countries’ apparel exports. However, as this study’s findings illustrate, AGOA and other trade preference programs seemed inadequate in assisting SSA countries in developing capacity beyond basic apparel categories and securing a sufficient variety of textile materials. As U.S. fashion companies have placed greater emphasis on factors beyond price in their sourcing decisions, such as flexibility, agility, sustainability, and vendors’ capability to make a wide variety of products, this could put SSA countries at even more significant disadvantages down the road to being considered alternatives to Asia for apparel sourcing.

The results also reminded us that AGOA’s liberal rules of origin, which allowed least-developed SSA countries to use textile materials from anywhere worldwide, cannot replace the crucial need to develop the local textile manufacturing capacity within the SSA region. Without a robust local textile manufacturing sector, SSA countries would encounter significant challenges in diversifying their product offerings to include more complex and versatile clothing categories, such as outerwear and women’s dresses. These categories typically require a wide variety of raw textile materials and accessories, making it highly impractical and inefficient to rely solely on imports for their supply.

On the other hand, the findings reveal the necessity of creating a stable and foreseeable business environment, such as the long-term renewal of AGOA, to attract more long-term investments in SSA. For example, investing in and strengthening SSA countries’ local supply of sustainable textile materials, such as recycled or organic fibers, could strategically enhance SSA countries’ competitiveness in meeting the increasing demand from U.S. fashion companies for sustainable apparel products.

Additional reading:

Sourcing Journal: Report: As African Apparel Imports Dwindle, the Time for AGOA Renewal is Now
Melissa Nelson (General Counsel of SanMar Corporation)’s Senate Finance Committee Testimony about apparel sourcing from AGOA (June 5, 2024)

Explore Egypt, Morocco, and Tunisia as a Sourcing Base for Clothing Made from Recycled Cotton

The full article is available HERE and below is the summary:

With consumers’ growing demand for sustainable apparel products, fashion companies increasingly carry clothing made from recycled textile materials and seek additional supply bases. Recycled cotton has great potential for use in garments because of the wide availability of cotton-made secondhand clothing and the perceived positive environmental impacts of effectively recycling post-consumption cotton waste.

This study explores Egypt, Morocco, and Tunisia’s potential as sourcing bases for clothing made from recycled cotton. North African countries, including Egypt, Morocco, and Tunisia, have a long history of making and exporting cotton and cotton-made finished garments. The “developing country” status and membership in trade agreements or trade preference programs, such as the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) and the EU-Mediterranean Association Agreement, allow apparel products from these three countries to enjoy preferential duty benefits in the world’s top import markets. Therefore, there is great potential to capitalize on recycled cotton apparel and “green exports” to further promote economic development in the region.

About 13,000 Stock Keeping Units (SKUs) of clothing items made by these three countries newly launched to the world retail market between January 2022 and April 2024 were randomly captured from fashion brands and retailers’ websites. About half of the items were made of regular cotton, and the other half explicitly mentioned using “recycled cotton” in the product label or description. The results show that:

#1: Egypt, Morocco, and Tunisia have gradually expanded their clothing exports made from recycled cotton since 2022. For example, as estimated, about 1,300 SKUs of clothing using recycled cotton from these three countries were newly launched to the US and EU retail markets in 2023, a substantial increase from only 150 SKUs back in 2022 (or a sevenfold increase). Similarly, in the first four months of 2024, clothing using recycled cotton accounted for 10.2% of total cotton apparel from the three countries in the US and EU markets, a substantial increase from only 1.1% in 2022.

#2: Of the collected samples, apparel using recycled cotton from Egypt, Morocco, and Tunisia was destined for as many as 49 countries, reflecting the global demand for such products. However, possibly restrained by the limited supply, the export market for clothing using recycled cotton remained less diverse than that for clothing made of regular cotton, which spanned 72 countries.

#3: Geographically, the European Union (EU) was the top clothing export market for Egypt, Morocco, and Tunisia, accounting for over 75% of these countries’ export value in 2022, according to UN trade statistics (UNComtrade). This was also the case for recycled cotton products. Specifically, the EU accounted for 65% of these three countries’ total recycled cotton clothing exports measured in SKUs in the collected samples, higher than 59.4% of regular cotton clothing products.

#4: Egypt, Morocco, and Tunisia focused on different product categories for clothing using recycled cotton than those made from regular cotton. Specifically, of the sampled items, clothing using recycled cotton had a notable concentration on bottoms (52.9%), followed by tops other than T-shirts (23.8%). Recycled cotton clothing also was more commonly used for outerwear (7.5%) than those using regular cotton (3.8%). In comparison, only about 7.9% of clothing using recycled cotton were T-shirts, much fewer than nearly 30% of those using regular cotton. Similarly, specific product categories, such as underwear and hosiery, rarely use recycled cotton. Likely, the concerns for quality and durability and the difficulty of absorbing higher production costs make using recycled cotton for these relatively simple categories more challenging.

#5: Even though cotton apparel made in Egypt, Morocco, and Tunisia already commonly mentioned their sustainability attributes (86%), phrases such as “sustainability” and “sustainable” appeared even more frequently in clothing using recycled cotton (94.6%). For example, some producers highlighted that they “worked with suppliers, workers, unions and international organizations” to ensure their recycled cotton clothing contributed to “the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals.” Likewise, some labels intentionally remind consumers about the positive environmental impact of using recycled cotton, “The use of recycled cotton helps to limit the consumption of raw materials.” Another added, “The production of recycled cotton recovered cotton, mainly from the production of other garments, thus reducing the production of virgin spring and water consumption, energy and natural resources.”

Meanwhile, compared to clothing using regular cotton, those made with recycled cotton in Egypt, Morocco, and Tunisia reported much higher participation in certification programs, such as the Recycled Claim Standard (RCS), which verifies the recycled content and tracks it from source to final product.

#6: Reflecting the technical limitations of the fiber property, it remains rare to have clothing that is 100% made from recycled cotton. According to industry experts, longer cotton fibers generally indicate higher quality. Since the recycling process shortens cotton fibers, regular virgin cotton or other fibers like polyester are typically used alongside recycled cotton to make fabrics smoother, stronger, and more durable. For example, common labels include descriptions such as “80% virgin cotton, 20% RCS certified recycled cotton” and “55% RCS certified recycled polyester, 45% RCS certified recycled cotton.”

#7: Except for T-shirts, in most cases, clothing made from recycled cotton in Egypt, Morocco, and Tunisia was priced lower than their equivalent using virgin fiber in the market. This is particularly the case for the premium and luxury market segments, where clothing using recycled fiber typically was 20-30% lower priced than regular clothing. The results echo the findings of numerous studies indicating that consumers are generally unwilling to pay higher prices for recycled fiber clothing as they perceive such products as lower quality and less “valuable.” Also, more needs to be done to create more financial incentives for producers in Egypt, Morocco, and Tunisia to expand the production scale and increase the use of recycled cotton in their products.

By Emilie Delaye and Sheng Lu

The Puzzling US Apparel Import Data…

The latest US apparel import data raises several puzzles that deserve to be investigated further.

Question 1: Why did imports suddenly surge, and is this surge sustainable?

Unexpectedly, US apparel imports experienced a significant surge in February 2024. This surge was marked by a 12.9% increase in quantity and a 2.9% increase in value compared to the previous year. Seasonally adjusted US apparel imports in February 2024 were also nearly 10% higher than in January 2024. The import surge was particularly surprising given that the value of US clothing sales in February 2024 was only 1.3% higher than a year ago and even 0.5% lower than in January 2024 (seasonally adjusted).

That being said, US total merchandise imports also enjoyed a 2.2% increase year over year in February 2024, the best performance since last fall. Meanwhile, the World Trade Organization (WTO)’s latest April 2024 forecast predicted the world merchandise trade volume to grow by 2.6% in 2024 as opposed to a 1.2% decline in 2023.

Therefore, it will be important to watch whether the US apparel trade has indeed reached a turning point and will continue growing in the coming months and throughout the year.

Question 2: Could the volume of US apparel imports in 2023 have been underreported?

With over 98% of clothing sold in the US retail market being imported today, there exists a strong correlation between US apparel retail sales (NAICS code 4481) and the volume of apparel imports. Between 2015 and 2022, the US clothing sales to clothing import ratio remained consistently around 3.0-3.2 (seasonally adjusted). In other words, the value of retail sales was approximately three times the value of apparel imports. However, in 2023, this ratio increased to 4.0-4.5.

One suspicion is that as more apparel imports came into the US through the de minimis, the official US apparel import data in 2023 was somewhat underreported. Notably, according to Euromonitor, about 40% of US apparel retail sales were achieved through e-commerce in 2023, a substantial increase from 9.4% in 2010. Likewise, with US customs tightening controls on “small package shipments” and enhancing UFLPA enforcement, more imports likely began entering through the standard procedure in recent months, which explains why the US apparel sales to import rato fell back to 3.8 in February 2024.

On the other hand, some say the lowered US apparel import volume in 2023 was due to retailers’ efforts to control inventory levels. Data shows that US clothing stores’ stock-to-sales ratio in the last quarter of 2023 averaged 2.34, slightly lower than 2.43 from 2015 to 2019, but was higher than 2.19 back in 2021. In other words, while there was some effort by retailers to control inventory (as seen by the ratio being lower than pre-pandemic levels), it wasn’t a significant enough change to have a large impact on import demand. Also, considering that apparel is a seasonal product, it doesn’t seem too likely that retailers would risk losing sales opportunities during the most critical selling season of the year (i.e., 4^th quarter) by promoting outdated items instead of stocking new ones on the shelf.

Question 3: Why did Asian countries export more apparel to Mexico?

As a developing country, Mexico is not traditionally a leading apparel import market due to consumers’ limited purchasing power and the sufficient local apparel supply. Take China, Vietnam, Bangladesh, and Cambodia, the four top Asian apparel exporting countries (Asia4), for instance. Between 2018 and 2020, Mexico typically accounted for 0.4%-0.7% of Asia4’s total apparel exports. However, since 2022, Asia4 has almost doubled its apparel exports to Mexico (i.e., increased to 1.5%-2.0%). Moreover, during the same period, the percentage of Asia4’s apparel exports to the United States declined from 27% to below 20%, especially in the last quarter of 2023.

What’s behind the increase in Asian countries’ apparel exports to Mexico needs to be investigated further. As noted earlier, Mexico itself is a leading apparel-producing country. Also, according to Euromonitor, the clothing market in Mexico stayed relatively stable at around 7.6%-7.9% of the size of the US from 2017 to 2023 (in quantity). In other words, Mexico’s increased import demand for Asian clothing doesn’t make much sense.

Others suspect some Asian apparel exports to Mexico eventually entered the US market either by taking advantage of the de minimis rule or the US-Mexico-Canda (USMCA) trade agreement. However, the exact size of this particular trade flow calls for further investigation.

By Sheng Lu

Patterns of US Apparel Imports in 2023 and Critical Sourcing Trends to Watch in 2024

The latest data from the Office of Textiles and Apparel (OTEXA) and the United States International Trade Commission (USITC) suggested several key patterns of US apparel imports in 2023.

First, affected by the macro economy, US apparel import volume in 2023 suffered the most significant decline since the pandemic. Specifically, US apparel imports decreased by 22% in quantity and value in 2023 compared to 2022, with none of the top ten suppliers experiencing positive growth.

Nevertheless, after several months of straight decline, US apparel imports finally bounced back in December 2023. Thanks to the holiday season and a gradual improvement of the US economy, seasonally adjusted US apparel imports in December 2023 were about 4.5% higher in quantity and 4.2% higher in value than the previous month. Highly consistent with trends, the US Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) increased from 67.2 in November to 76.4 in December (January 2019=100), suggesting US households turned more confident about their financial outlook and willing to spend. That being said, the latest January 2024 International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts still predicted the US GDP growth would slow down from 2.5% in 2023 to 2.1% in 2024. Thus, whether the US apparel import volume could continue to maintain growth after the holiday season remains a big question mark.

Second, while the pace of sourcing cost increases has slowed, the costs and financial pressure facing US fashion companies are far from over. Specifically, as of December 2023, the price index of US apparel imports stood at 106 (January 2019=100), almost no change from January 2023. However, two emerging trends are worth watching. One is the declining US apparel retail price index since August 2023, which means US fashion companies may have to sacrifice their profits to attract consumers to the store. The second trend is the surging shipping costs as a result of the recent Red Sea shipping crisis, which were not reflected in the December price data. According to J.P. Morgan, during the week of January 25, 2024, the container shipping rates from China to the US West Coast and East Coast saw a significant spike of around 140% and 120% from November 2023, respectively. Even worse, there is no sign that the Red Sea crisis will soon be solved. Therefore, 2024 could pose another year of financial challenges for many US fashion companies.

Third, diversification remained a pivotal trend in US fashion companies’ sourcing strategy in 2023. For example, the Herfindahl–Hirschman index (HHI), a commonly used measurement of market concentration, went down from 0.105 in 2022 to 0.101 in 2022, suggesting that US apparel imports came from even more diverse sources.

Notably, measured in value, only 71.6% of US apparel imports came from Asia in 2023, the lowest in five years. Highly consistent with the US Fashion Industry Association’s Benchmarking Survey results, OTEXA’s data reflected companies’ intention to diversify their sourcing away from Asia due to increasing geopolitical concerns, particularly the rising US-China strategic competition.

However, it should be noted that Asia’s reduced market share did not benefit “near-shoring” from the Western hemisphere much. For example, in 2023, approximately 14.6% of US apparel imports originated from USMCA and CAFTA-DR members, nearly the same as the 14.3% recorded in 2022. Instead, US apparel imports outside Asia and the Western Hemisphere jumped to 11.4% in 2023 from 9.8% a year ago. Some emerging EU and African suppliers, such as Turkey, Romania, Morocco, and Tunisia, performed relatively well in the US market in 2023, although their market shares remained small. We could highly expect the sourcing diversification strategy to continue in 2024 as many companies regard the strategy as the most effective to mitigate various market uncertainties and sourcing risks.

Fourth, US fashion companies continued reducing their China exposure as much as possible, but China will remain a key player in the game. On the one hand, about 20.0% of US apparel imports in value and 25.9% in quantity came from China in 2023, both hit a new low in the past decade. Recent studies also show that it became increasingly common for China to no longer be the largest source of apparel imports for many US fashion companies.

However, China remains highly competitive in terms of the variety of products it offers. For example, the export product diversification index, calculated based on trade data at the 6-digit HTS code level (Chapters 61 and 62), shows that few other countries can match China’s product variety. Likewise, product level data collected from industry sources indicates that China offered far more clothing styles (measured in Stock Keeping Units, SKUs) than its competitors in 2023. According to the results, rather than identifying 1-2 specific “next China,” US fashion companies appeared to leverage “category killers”—for example, utilizing Vietnam as a sourcing base for outerwear, underwear, and swimwear; India for dresses, and Bangladesh for large-volume basic knitwear items.

Related to this, another recent study found that the top five largest Asian suppliers next to China, including Vietnam, Bangladesh, Indonesia, India, and Cambodia, collectively can offer diverse product categories almost comparable to those from China in the US market.

Fifth, trade data reveals early signs that US fashion companies are gradually reducing sourcing cotton apparel products from Asia because of the implementation of the Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act (UFLPA). Notably, when concerns about cotton made by Xinjiang forced labor initially emerged in 2018, US fashion companies quickly shifted sourcing orders for cotton apparel (OTEXA code 31) from China to other Asian countries. However, UFLPA’s enforcement increasingly targets imports from Asian countries other than China due to the highly integrated regional textile and apparel supply chain and Asian countries’ heavy reliance on textile inputs from China. Consequently, Asia (excluding China) accounted for a declining share in the total imports of US cotton apparel in 2023.

Meanwhile, affected by UFLPA’s enforcement, only 11.8% of US cotton apparel imports came from China in 2023, marking a further decline from 13% in 2022 and reaching a new low for the past decade. China also deliberately decreased the percentage of cotton apparel in its total apparel exports to the US market, dropping from nearly 40% in 2017 to only 25% in 2023. In comparison, cotton apparel consistently represented about 45% of total US apparel imports during the same period.

Additionally, while there was no substantial increase in the volume of US apparel imports from CAFTA-DR members, as a silver lining, the utilization of the trade agreement improved. In 2023, about 19.2% of US apparel imports claimed duty-free benefits under US free trade agreements and trade preference programs, a notable increase from 17.7% in 2022. Most such imports came under CAFTA-DR (45.4%) and USMCA (19.7%).

Meanwhile, in the first 12 months of 2023 (latest OTEXA data), about 70.2% of US apparel imports came from CAFTA-DR members claimed the duty-free benefit, up from 66.6% the same period a year ago. Particularly, 65.4% of US apparel imports under CAFTA-DR complied with the yarn-forward rules of origin in 2023, a notable increase from 61.3% in 2022. Another 2.6% of imports utilized the agreement’s short supply mechanism, which also went up from 2.3% in 2022. The results could reflect an ever more integrated regional textile and apparel supply chain among CAFTA-DR members due to increasing investments made in the region in recent years. However, there is still much that needs to be done to effectively increase the volume of US apparel imports from the region.

by Sheng Lu

Exploring US Apparel Brands and Retailers’ Evolving Sourcing Strategies (December 2023)

The full article is here (Just-Style access required). Below are the key findings:

Based on a content analysis of the annual reports of about 30 largest US fashion brands and retailers from 2018 to 2023, this study aims to identify these companies’ most critical evolving sourcing practices, including their sourcing destination adjustment, primary sourcing factors, and emerging sourcing-related “hot topics.” The findings provide critical market intelligence, informing US fashion companies about their peers’ emerging sourcing trends and popular practices. The results show that:

First, maintaining a relatively diverse sourcing base remains common among US fashion companies. Results show that large-size companies today typically source from more than 20 countries. One critical factor behind fashion companies’ sourcing diversification strategies is that no single supplying country is “perfect,” given the increasingly complex sourcing factors. Sourcing diversification allows fashion companies to balance various sourcing factors. For example, according to company #19, “the (sourcing diversification) approach provides us with the greatest flexibility in identifying the appropriate manufacturers while considering quality, cost, timing of product delivery and other criteria.” On the other hand, sourcing diversification enables companies to adapt quickly to market uncertainties and enjoy supply chain flexibility and resilience.

Second, while US fashion companies are not necessarily leaving any particular countries they source from, many have substantially reduced the number of vendors they work with over the past few years. Specifically, out of the 30 fashion companies the study examined, over 60% explicitly mentioned they consolidated their sourcing base at the vendor level from 2017/2018 to 2022/2023, although the degree varied. For example:

Company #4, a leading sportswear brand, cut its contracted factories from 363 to 291 (or down 19.8%)
Company #6, which owns several jeans and sportswear brands, reduced its contracted factories from 1,000 to around 340 (or down 66%)
Company #9, a well-known specialty clothing store, cut its vendors from 800 to 250 (or down 68.8%)
Company #26, a specialty clothing store targeting the youth, cut its vendors from 150 to around 119 (or down 20.7%)
Company #28, a discount department store, cut its vendors from 3,100 to around 2,800 (or down 9.7%)

Associated with the trend of “country diversification and vendor consolidation,” US fashion companies are increasingly interested in working with “super vendors,” e.g., those with multiple country presence or vertical manufacturing capability. The use of “super vendor” can also be observed in fashion companies’ willingness to give more sourcing orders to their top suppliers. For example, Company #18, a casual and outdoor wear retailer, reduced its vendors from 200 in 2017/2018 to 110 in 2022/2023, but increased the cap of sourcing orders for its top 10 vendors from 40% to 47% over the same period.

Third, regarding the sourcing base, many US fashion companies have intentionally reduced their apparel sourcing from China, given the US-China tariff war, deteriorating bilateral relations, and the forced labor concerns with China’s Xinjiang region (XUAR). Specifically, more than one-third of the examined companies explicitly mentioned their strategy to reduce finished garments sourcing from China. Furthermore, several US fashion companies indicated their “reducing China exposure” strategy would continue, implying China’s market share in the US apparel import market could decrease further.

Nevertheless, even though fewer finished garments are coming from China, US fashion companies admit that China will continue to play a critical role as a textile raw material supplier as no immediate practical alternative is available. For example, Company #20, a specialty clothing chain focusing on trendy and fashionable items, says, “During fiscal 2022, we sourced most of our finished products with partners and suppliers outside the US and we continued to design and purchase fabrics globally, with most coming from China.”

Fourth, in line with trade statistics, US fashion companies consider other Asian suppliers, such as Vietnam, Bangladesh, Cambodia, and Indonesia, as their top choices as China’s alternatives. In comparison, few fashion companies explicitly mentioned moving their sourcing orders from China to Western Hemisphere countries or other regions.

Additionally, regarding emerging “hot topics” related to sourcing:

Geopolitics: the deteriorating US-China relations, escalated trade tensions expanded from tariffs to forced labor, and the potential trade disruptions have concerned US fashion companies significantly. Notably, US fashion companies regard sourcing from China as increasingly risky, with the implementation of the Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act (UFLPA) in June 2022. For example, according to Company 2, “The Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act and other similar legislation may lead to greater supply chain compliance costs and delays to us and to our vendors.”

Near-shoring: due to the decoupling and de-risking from the China movement, US fashion companies have begun actively exploring near-shoring sourcing opportunities in the Western Hemisphere, particularly from members of the Dominican Republic-Central America Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA-DR). For example, Company #1, the North American manufacturer, disclosed that “(our) Company relies on a number of preferential trade programs (…) including the Dominican Republic – Central America – United States Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA-DR (…) Collectively, these agreements strengthen US economic relations and expand trade with Central America, the Dominican Republic, and Haiti.”

Sustainability and social responsibility: It is noteworthy that aside from climate change and forced labor, which are typically addressed as risk factors, US fashion companies generally hold an optimistic and forward-looking perspective for sustainability, such as new technologies and endeavors toward more sustainable production and sourcing. Terms such as using preferred or recycled materials, supply chain transparency and traceability, and emerging sustainability technologies have been more frequently mentioned in companies’ annual or ESG reports. For example, Company #17 says, “Increase the usage of environmentally preferred materials to comprise 32.6% of the brand’s global materials footprint.” Company #2 adds, “Our goal is to use preferred materials in 100 percent of our products by 2030.” Company #9 states, “We collaborate with suppliers to increase the supply of preferred raw materials.”

Supply chain transparency: US fashion companies attach great importance to improving supply chain transparency and traceability. Compared to the past, fashion companies are more willing to invest in new technologies and digital tools, allowing them to map supply chains and achieve sustainability goals more effectively. Related to this, US fashion companies have actively engaged with industry associations and other industry communities outside the company to stay informed about sustainability trends and learn best practices.

By Emily Delaye and Sheng Lu

Note: Welcome to the webinar hosted by the US Fashion Industry Association (USFIA) on Friday, December 15, 2023 at 2:00pm EST, to hear Emily Delaye discuss the study in detail.

Patterns of US Apparel Imports (Updated September 2023)

First, while US apparel imports gradually recovered, the import demand remained weak overall. For example, US apparel imports in July 2023 increased by 0.9% in value and 2% in quantity from June (seasonally adjusted). However, the trade volume still experienced a decrease of approximately 17-18% compared to the previous year. Meanwhile, the US consumer confidence index fell again in August 2023, suggesting the economic uncertainties are far from over. Notably, so far in 2023 (January to July), US apparel imports decreased by 22.3% in value and 28% in quantity from the previous year, the worst performance since the pandemic.

As a silver lining, the price of US apparel imports has stabilized, although inflation remains an issue for the US economy.

Secondly, because of the seasonal pattern, Asian countries were able to capture relatively higher market shares since June. For example, measured in value, China, ASEAN, and Bangladesh accounted for over 64% of total US apparel imports in July 2023, a notable increase from 61% in June and 58% in May 2023.

Nevertheless, US fashion companies continue diversifying their sourcing base to mitigate various supply chain risks and rising geopolitical tensions. For example, the HHI Index for US apparel imports dropped to 0.097 in the first seven months of 2023, which is lower than the 0.106 recorded in the same period the previous year (January to July 2022), indicating a greater diversity in the sources of imports.

Third, despite an apparent rebound in exports to the US, China continued to experience a further decline in its market share. For instance, in July 2023, China’s market share was more than 3 percentage points lower in value (27.2% in July 2022 vs. 24.1% in July 2023) and 2.5 percentage points lower in quantity (43.1% in July 2022 vs. 40.6% in July 2023). This marked the worst performance since April 2023. In other words, consistent with recent industry surveys, US fashion companies continue to reduce their China exposure given the adverse business environment.

Fourth, the latest data suggests that US apparel imports from CAFTA-DR members remain stagnant, and some critical problems, such as the underutilization of the agreement, even worsened. For example, about 9.5% of US apparel imports in value and 8.5% in quantity came from CAFTA-DR members in July 2023, lower than 10.2% and 9.0% in the previous year (i.e., July 2022). In absolute terms, US apparel imports from CAFTA-DR in 2023 were about 20% lower than in 2022.

Additionally, CAFTA-DR’s utilization rate (i.e., the value of imports claiming the duty-free benefits under CAFTA-DR divided by the total value of imports from CAFTA-DR) fell from 70.2% in 2022 (Jan to July) to a new low of 69.2% in 2023 (Jan to July). Likewise, the value of imports utilizing CAFTA-DR’s short supply decreased by more than 20%. Thus, how to leverage CAFTA-DR to meaningfully encourage more US apparel imports from the region, particularly in light of US fashion companies’ eagerness to reduce their exposure to China, calls for sustained efforts and probably new strategies.

by Sheng Lu

Primark’s Global Sourcing for Apparel (Updated September 2023)

Primark’s sourcing strategies

According to Primark, it does not own any factories but sources all apparel products from contracted factories. Any contracted factory that manufactures products for Primark must meet internationally recognized standards before receiving the first sourcing order.

As of October 2022, Primark sourced from 883 contracted factories in 26 countries (note: it was a slight decline from 928 contracted factories in 28 countries as of May 2021). Of these factories, 85.5 percent were Asia-based because of the region’s massive production capacity and a balanced offer of various sourcing factors, from cost, speed to market, and flexibility to compliance risks.

Like many other EU-based fashion companies, near-shoring from within the EU was another critical feature of Primark’s sourcing strategies. About 14 percent of Primark’s contracted garment factories were EU-based (including Turkey).

Measured by the number of workers, Primark’s Asian factories were larger than their counterparts in other parts of the world. For example, while Primark’s factories in Pakistan and Bangladesh typically have more than 2,500+ workers, its factories in Western EU countries like the UK, Germany, Italy, and France, on average, only have 64-200 workers. This pattern suggests that Primark mainly uses Asian factories to fulfill volume sourcing orders, and its EU factories mainly produce replenishment or more time-sensitive fashionable items.

Meanwhile, similar to the case of other retailers like PVH, Primark’s contracted garment factories in China were smaller than their peers in the rest of Asia. For instance, while over 90% of Primark’s garment factories in Bangladesh employ more than 1,000 workers, around 43% of their contracted factories in China have fewer than 100 workers. This pattern suggests Primark could use China as an apparel sourcing base primarily for orders requiring greater flexibility and agility and those involving a wider variety of products but in smaller quantities.

Further, reflecting the unique role of the garment industry in creating economic opportunities for women, females account for more than half of the workforce in most garment factories that make apparel for Primark. The percentage was exceptionally high in developing countries like Tunisia (94%), Morocco (91%), Pakistan (69%), Sri Lanka (69%), Myanmar (64%), India (62%), and Vietnam (59%).

According to Primark (as of September 2023), its Ethical Trade and Environmental Sustainability team comprises over 120 specialists based in key sourcing countries. The team conducts around 3,000 supplier audits a year to monitor compliance (i.e., fair pay, safety, and healthy working conditions.) Additionally, Primark says its factories were in line with the company’s environmental code of conduct, and the company “donated any unsold merchandise to the Newlife Foundation in Europe and KIDS/Fashion Delivers in the US.

by Sheng Lu

Discussion questions:

What are the unique aspects of Primark’s apparel sourcing strategies? What role does sourcing play in supporting Primark’s business success? Any questions or suggestions for Primark regarding its sourcing practices?

WTO Reports World Textiles and Clothing Trade in 2022

Note: the World Textiles and Clothing Trade in 2023 is available:

Lu, S. (2024). World Textile and Clothing Trade: Key Patterns and Emerging Trends. Global Textile Academy, International Trade Centre, Geneva, Switzerland.

This article comprehensively reviewed the world textiles and clothing trade patterns in 2022 based on the newly released World Trade Organization Statistical Review 2023 and data from the United Nations (UNComtrade). Affected by the slowing world economy and fashion companies’ evolving sourcing strategies in response to the rising geopolitical tensions, mainly linked to China, the world’s textiles and clothing trade in 2022 displayed several notable patterns different from the past.

Pattern #1: The expansion of world clothing exports witnessed a notable deceleration in 2022, primarily attributed to the economic downturn. Meanwhile, the world’s textile exports decreased from the previous year, affected by the reduced demand for textile raw materials used to produce personal protective equipment (PPE) as the pandemic waned.

The world’s clothing exports totaled $576 billion in 2022, up 5 percent year over year, much slower than the remarkable 20 percent growth in 2021. The slowed economic growth plus the unprecedented high inflation in major apparel import markets, particularly the United States and Western European countries, adversely affected consumers’ available budget for discretionary expenditures, including clothing purchases.
The world’s textile exports fell by 4.2 percent in 2022, totaling $339 billion, lagging behind most industrial sectors. Such a pattern was understandable as the demand for PPE and related textile raw materials substantially decreased with the pandemic nearing its end.

Pattern #2: China continued to lose market share in clothing exports, which benefited other leading apparel exporters in Asia. Notably, for the first time, Bangladesh surpassed Vietnam and ranked as the world’s second-largest apparel exporter in 2022.

In value, China remained the world’s largest apparel exporter in 2022. However, China’s clothing exports experienced a growth of 3.6 percent, below the global average of 5.0 percent, positioning China at the bottom of the top ten exporters.
China’s global market share in clothing exports dropped to 31.7 percent in 2022, marking its lowest point since the pandemic and a significant decrease from the approximate 38 percent recorded from 2015 to 2018. In fact, China lost market share in almost all major clothing import markets, including the US, the EU, Canada, and Japan. The concerns about the risks of forced labor linked to sourcing from China and the deteriorating US-China relations were among the primary factors driving fashion companies’ eagerness to reduce their ‘China exposure” further.

China has been diversifying its clothing exports beyond the traditional Western markets in response to the challenging business environment. For example, from 2021 to 2022, Asian countries, especially members of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), became relatively more important clothing export markets for China. Nevertheless, since RCEP members primarily consist of developing economies with ambitions to enhance their own clothing production, the long-term growth prospects for their import demand of ‘Made in China’ clothing remain uncertain.
Bangladesh achieved a new record high in its market share of world clothing exports, reaching 7.9 percent in 2022, which exceeded Vietnam’s 6.1 percent. Many fashion companies regard Bangladesh as a promising clothing-sourcing destination with growth potential because of its capability to make cotton garments as China’s alternatives, competitive price, and reduced social compliance risks.
Fashion companies’ efforts to “de-risking from China” also resulted in the robust growth of clothing exports from other large-scale Asian clothing producers in 2022, including Vietnam (up 13 percent), Cambodia (up 12 percent), and India (up 10 percent). In other words, despite the concerns about China, fashion companies still treat Asia as their primary sourcing destination.

Pattern #3: Developed countries stay critical textile exporters, and middle-income developing countries gradually build new textile production and export capability.

The European Union members and the United States stayed critical textile exporters, accounting for 25.1 percent of the world’s textile exports in 2022, up from 24.5 percent in 2021 and 23.2 percent in 2020. Thanks to the increasing demand from apparel producers in the Western Hemisphere, U.S. textile exports increased by 5 percent in 2022, the highest among the world’s top ten.
As a persistent long-term trend, middle-income developing countries have consistently been strengthening their textile production and export capability. For example, China, Vietnam, Turkey, and India’s market shares in the world’s textile exports have steadily risen. They collectively accounted for 56.8 percent of the world’s clothing exports in 2022, a notable increase from only 40 percent in 2010. Also, over time, these middle-income developing countries have achieved a more balanced textiles-to-clothing export ratio.

Pattern #4: Regional textile and apparel trade patterns strengthened further with the growing popularity of near-shoring, particularly in the Western Hemisphere. However, an early indication has emerged that Asian countries are diversifying their sources of textile raw materials away from China to mitigate growing risks.

The regional textile and apparel supply chains were in good shape in Asia and Europe. For example, nearly 80 percent of Asian countries’ textile input and apparel imports came from within the region in 2022. Likewise, approximately half of EU countries’ textile imports were intra-region trade in 2022, and one-third were for apparel.
The Western Hemisphere (WH) textile and apparel supply chain became more integrated in 2022 thanks to the booming near-shoring trends. For example, 20.8 percent of WH countries’ textile imports came from within the region in 2022, up from 20.1 percent in the previous year. Likewise, about 15.1 percent of WH countries’ apparel imports came from within the region in 2022, higher than 14.7 percent in 2021 and 13.9 percent in 2022.
Compared with Asia and the EU, SSA clothing producers used much fewer locally-made textiles (i.e., stagnant at around 11% from 2011 to 2022), reflecting the region’s lack of textile manufacturing capability. A more comprehensive examination of strategies for bolstering the textile manufacturing sector in Sub-Saharan Africa, particularly in light of the recently enacted African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) agreement, might be warranted.

Additionally, data suggests that Asian countries began diversifying their textile imports away from China to mitigate supply chain risks. For example, with the official implementation of anti-forced labor legislation in the US and other primary apparel import markets directly targeting cotton made in China’s Xinjiang region, Asian countries significantly reduced their cotton fabric imports (SITC code 652) from China in 2022. Instead, Asian countries other than China accounted for 46.3 percent of the region’s textile supply in 2022, up from around 42-43 percent between 2019 and 2021.
It is critical to watch how willing, to what extent, and how quickly Asian countries can effectively reduce their dependency on textile supplies from China. The result is also an important reminder that Western fashion companies’ de-risking from China could exert significant and broad impacts across the entire supply chain beyond finished goods.

By Sheng Lu

Further reading: Lu, Sheng (2023).Key trends to watch as world clothing trade moves from China to wider Asia in 2023. Just-Style.

2023 USFIA Fashion Industry Benchmarking Study Released

The full report is available HERE

USFIA webinar (Aug 2023)

Key findings of this year’s report:

#1 U.S. fashion companies are deeply concerned about the deteriorating U.S.-China bilateral relationship and plan to accelerate “reducing China exposure” to mitigate the risks.

Respondents identified “Finding a new sourcing base other than China” as a more prominent challenge in 2023 than the previous year (i.e., 4^th in 2023 vs. 11^th in 2022).
This year, over 40 percent of respondents reported sourcing less than 10 percent of their apparel products from China, up from 30 percent of respondents a year ago and a notable surge from only 20 percent in 2019. Similarly, a new record high of 61 percent of respondents no longer use China as their top supplier in 2023, up from 50 percent of respondents in 2022 and much higher than only 25-30 percent before the pandemic.
Nearly 80 percent of respondents plan to reduce apparel sourcing from China over the next two years, with a record high of 15 percent planning to “strongly decrease” sourcing from the country. This strong sentiment was not present in past studies. Notably, large-size U.S. fashion companies (with 1,000+ employees) that currently source more than 10 percent of their apparel products from China are among the most eager to de-risk.

#2 Tackling forced labor risks in the supply chain remains a significant challenge confronting U.S. fashion companies in 2023.

“Managing the forced labor risks in the supply chain” ranks as the 2^nd top business challenge in 2023, with 64 percent of respondents rating the issue as one of their top five concerns.
Most surveyed U.S. fashion companies have taken a comprehensive approach to mitigating forced labor risks in the supply chain. Three practices, including “asking vendors to provide more detailed social compliance information,” “attending workshops and other educational events to understand related regulations better,” and “intentionally reducing sourcing from high-risk countries,” are the most commonly adopted by respondents (over 80 percent) in response to forced labor risks and the UFLPA’s implementation.
Since January 1, 2023, U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP)’s UFLPA enforcement has affected respondents’ importation of “Cotton apparel products from China,” “Cotton apparel products from Asian countries other than China,” and “Home textiles from China.”
U.S. fashion companies are actively seeking to diversify their sourcing beyond Asia to mitigate the forced labor risks, particularly regarding cotton products.

#3 There is robust excitement about increasing apparel sourcing from members of the Dominican Republic-Central America Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA-DR).

CAFTA-DR members play a more significant role as an apparel sourcing base this year. Over 80 percent of respondents report sourcing from CAFTA-DR members in 2023, a notable increase from 60 percent in the past few years. Also, nearly 30 percent of respondents placed more than 10 percent of their sourcing orders with CAFTA-DR members this year, a substantial increase from only 19 percent of respondents in 2022 and 10 percent in 2021.
About 40 percent of respondents plan to increase apparel sourcing from CAFTA-DR members over the next two years. Most respondents consider expanding sourcing from CAFTA-DR as part of their overall sourcing diversification strategy.
With U.S. fashion companies actively seeking immediate alternatives to sourcing from China and Asia, respondents emphasize theincreased urgencyof improving textile raw material access to promote further U.S. apparel sourcing from CAFTA-DR members. “Allowing more flexibility in sourcing fabrics and yarns from outside CAFTA-DR” was regarded as the top improvement needed.

#4 US fashion companies demonstrate a solid dedication to expanding their sourcing of clothing made from recycled or other sustainable textile fibers:

Nearly 60 percent of respondents say at least 10 percent of their sourced apparel products already use recycled or other sustainable textile fibers. Another 60 percent of surveyed companies plan to “substantially increase sourcing apparel made from sustainable or recycled textile materials over the next five years.”
Addressing the higher sourcing costs and the low-profit margins are regarded as the top challenge for sourcing clothing using recycled or other sustainable fiber.
About 60 percent of respondents also call for policy support for sourcing clothing using recycled or other sustainable textile materials, such as preferential tariff rates and guidance on sustainability and recycling standards.

#5 Respondents strongly support and emphasize the importance of the early renewal of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) and extending the program for at least another ten years.

Respondents sourcing from AGOA members are typically large-scale U.S. fashion brands or retailers (with 1,000+ employees). Generally, these companies treat AGOA as part of their extensive global sourcing network and typically source less than 10 percent of the total sourcing value or volume from the region.
About 40 percent of respondents view AGOA as “essential for my company to source from AGOA members.”
About 60 percent of respondents say the temporary nature of AGOA “has discouraged them from making long-term investments and sourcing commitments in the region.” Many respondents expect to cut sourcing from AGOA members should the agreement is not renewed by June 2024.
About one-third of respondents currently sourcing from AGOA explicitly indicate, “Ethiopia’s loss of AGOA eligibility negatively affects my company’s interest in sourcing from the entire AGOA region.” In comparison, only about 17 percent of respondents say they “have moved sourcing orders from Ethiopia to other AGOA members.

Other topics covered by the report include:

5-year outlook for the U.S. fashion industry, including companies’ hiring plan by key positions
The competitiveness of major apparel sourcing destinations in 2023 regarding sourcing cost, speed to market, flexibility & agility, and compliance risks (assessed by respondents)
Respondents’ qualitative comments on the prospect of sourcing from China and “re-risk”
U.S. fashion companies’ latest social responsibility and sustainability practices related to sourcing
U.S. fashion companies’ trade policy priorities in 2023

Background

This year’s benchmarking study was based on a survey of executives from 30 leading U.S. fashion companies from April to June 2023. The study incorporated a balanced mix of respondents representing various businesses in the U.S. fashion industry. Approximately 73 percent of respondents were self-identified retailers, 60 percent self-identified brands, and 65 percent self-identified importers/wholesalers.

The respondents to the survey included both large U.S. fashion corporations and medium to small companies. Around 77 percent of respondents reported having more than 1,000 employees. And the rest (23 percent) represented medium to small-sized companies with 100-999 employees.

Patterns of US Apparel Imports (Updated June 2023)

Please also see the updated analysis: Patterns of US apparel imports in 2023 (Updated February 2024)

The latest OTEXA trade data suggests several US apparel import patterns:

First, US apparel imports indicated a slow improvement in April 2023 but remained weak this year. For example, measured in quantity, US apparel imports fell by 33.9% in April 2023 from a year ago, but it was less significant than in March (i.e., down 40.2% YoY*). Likewise, measured in value, US apparel imports fell by 29.3% YoY in April 2023, which improved from a 32.7% YoY decline in March 2023. (*YoY: Year-over-year)

Overall, the shrinking US apparel import volume reflected the headwinds in the US economy and consumers’ hesitancy to purchase clothing amid financial uncertainties and high inflation. Recent economic indicators also present a mixed picture of the US economy’s growth trajectory. For example, while the US consumer confidence index slightly went up from 68.0 in March to 69.6 in April 2023 (January 2019=100), the advanced clothing store sales index in April fell to 115.6 (Jan 2019=100), the lowest so far in 2023 (e.g., was 120.6 in January 2023). However, since summer is traditionally a peak season for clothing sales, followed by events like back-to-school shopping, there remains hope that US apparel imports may experience a slight recovery at some point in the second half of the year.

Second, trade data suggested that US apparel imports came from more diverse sources. For example, the Herfindahl–Hirschman index (HHI) fell below 0.1 in the first four months of 2023. Likewise, the market shares of the five largest suppliers (CS5) fell below 60% for the first time since 2018. The result suggested that leveraging sourcing diversification is a prevalent strategy among US fashion companies to mitigate supply chain risks and address market uncertainties.

Third, US fashion companies are serious and eager to further reduce their “China exposure.” Although China remained the top apparel supplier to the US, its market share fell to a new low of 17.9% in value and 30.6% in quantity in the first four months of 2023. Notably, for the first time in decades, less than 10% of US cotton apparel imports came from China in March/April 2023, revealing the significant impact of the Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act (UFLPA) on US fashion companies’ China sourcing strategies.

Related, US fashion companies appear to be increasingly cautious about sourcing apparel from Vietnam as its supply chain is too exposed to China, raising concerns about forced labor risks. In value, Vietnam accounted for 17.3% of US apparel imports in the first four months of 2023, down from 18.6% a year ago. Notably, almost the same amount of Vietnam’s textile and apparel products were subject to the CBP’s UFLPA investigation as China in FY2023.

CBP UFLPA enforcement statistics—FY2023—Apparel, Footwear and Textiles—All investigated (denied+ pending+released) see https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/stats/trade/uyghur-forced-labor-prevention-act-statistics

Fourth, large-scale Asian countries benefited the most as US fashion companies looking for China’s alternatives. Specifically, measured in value, about 70.6% of US apparel imports came from Asia in the first four months of 2023, down from 74.9% in 2022. However, the five largest apparel exporting countries in Asia other than China (i.e., Vietnam, Bangladesh, Indonesia, India, and Cambodia) accounted for 44.7% of US apparel imports in the first four months of 2023, a new high since 2018 (i.e., was 35.3%). These countries are among the most popular “alternatives to China” because of their balanced performance regarding production capacity, cost, flexibility, and compliance risks.

Fifth, US fashion companies are also actively exploring new near-shoring opportunities from the Western Hemisphere. For example, about 17.3% of US apparel imports came from Western Hemisphere countries in the first four months of 2023, up from 15.6% in 2023. That being said, measured in quantity, US apparel imports from Mexico and CAFTA-DR members fell by 13.0% and 21.2% in the first four months of 2023 from a year ago due to the struggling US economy. It will be interesting to see whether CAFTA-DR and Mexico can keep or enhance their market shares when the US import demand recovers.

By Sheng Lu

Progress and Challenges in Apparel Supply Chain Traceability: A Case Study on ASKET

ASKET is a prominent online retailer based in Sweden that commits to complete supply chain transparency. Based on analyzing nearly 40 unique products and their detailed supply chain information posted on ASKET’s website as of May 2023, the article aims to shed light on the company’s supply chain traceability progress and the remaining challenges it faces.

First, while ASKET achieved full traceability for Tier 1 suppliers, tracking Tier 2 and Tier 3 suppliers was more difficult. For example, compared with its perfect traceability score for Tier 1 suppliers (i.e., garment factories), ASKET’s average traceability for Tier 2 Milling factories (i.e., yarn and fabric producers) was at around 97%, and the score fell to only 77% for trims suppliers in Tier 3.

As one critical contributing factor to the phenomenon, Tier 2 and Tier 3 suppliers had far more players than Tier 1, which presented a more significant challenge in obtaining detailed information about all the factories involved. For example, ASKET’s garment cutting and sewing operations predominantly occurred within a single facility. In contrast, making yarns, fabrics, and trims EACH usually involve multiple facilities in different parts of the world.

Second, a comprehensive understanding of the sub-supply chains associated with apparel components is pivotal in enhancing a fashion company’s overall traceability. Notably, the apparel supply chain is far more complicated than the commonly known four stages—fiber, yarn, fabric, and garment manufacturing. Rather, apparel components like yarns, fabrics, sewing threads, buttons, and zippers have complex and intricate sub-supply chains. For instance, for ASKET’s shirts or polo shirts:

Cotton was “farmed in New Mexico, Arizona, California and Texas, USA, ginned in Anqing, China.”
Yarn was “spun and twisted in Hyderabad, India,” and “dyed in Varese, Italy.”
Fabric was “woven in Letohrad, Czech Republic, dyed and finished in Prato, Italy.”
Sewing thread was “produced in Breisgau, Germany, wound and packed in St. Maria de Palautordera, Spain”
Button was produced in Saccolongon, Italy, with corozo farmed in Manabi, Ecuador.

Third, using recycled textile materials in apparel products could make it trickier to map the supply chain.

ASKET reported no problem tracking recycled textile materials derived from natural fibers, especially recycled wool products.
ASKET’s capability of tracing recycled man-made fiber textiles yielded mixed results. For example, ASKET was still investigating the Tier 3 raw material suppliers for one fabric made with “100% pre-consumer recycled nylon.” Likewise, for one body fabric derived from “plastic waste collected from Spanish Mediterranean and French Atlantic oceans and coastlines,” pinpointing the precise origin of the raw fiber posed a challenge.

Fourth, ASKET’s data shows that using recycled textiles in apparel products could incur higher transportation costs. For example, the average transportation cost for an ASKET garment using recycled textiles would reach $5 per unit (or 6.3% of the total production costs), much higher than regular clothing using non-recycled materials ($1 per unit or 3% of the total production). However, on average, making a garment using recycled textile materials could involve fewer facilities(e.g., 9 vs. 12). This result suggests that the higher transportation cost associated with clothing made from recycled textiles may not be attributed to a longer supply chain but rather to a more tedious and expensive recycled fiber collection process.

Additionally, ASKET’s data indicates a strong correlation between its retail price and sourcing costs. Specifically, ASKET’s applied a gross margin% ranging from 71%–81%. This implies that a $2 increase in sourcing costs could potentially lead to a retail price increase of $10-$20. Thus, controlling and managing sourcing costs will always be a priority for a fashion company.

By Sheng Lu

Further reading: Lu, Sheng (2023). How Asket is achieving apparel supply chain traceability. Just-Style.

New Study: Impact of Textile Raw Material Access on CAFTA-DR Members’ Apparel Exports to the United States

The full paper is HERE. Below are the key findings:

Over the past decade, U.S. fashion brands and retailers have seen Central America as a critical emerging apparel-sourcing destination. Especially since implementing the Dominican-Republic Central America Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA-DR) in 2006, a trade deal among the United States, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, the Dominican Republic (joined in 2007), and Costa Rica (joined in 2009), apparel sourcing from the region gained consistent interest among U.S. companies.

Nevertheless, U.S. apparel sourcing from CAFTA-DR members is NOT without significant challenges. For example, CAFTA-DR countries’ market shares in the U.S. apparel import market fell from 11.8% in 2005 before the trade agreement entered into force to only 10.6% in 2022, measured by value. Trade data also indicated that U.S. apparel sourcing from CAFTA-DR members concentrated on simple and low-value items, such as T-shirts, and lacked product diversification with no improvement over the years.

Given the high stakes of improving the status quo, this study quantitatively evaluated the impact of textile raw material access on CAFTA-DR’s apparel exports to the United States. Specifically, this study assumed that CAFTA-DR members cut their textile import tariff rates to improve garment producers’ textile raw material access (i.e., to reduce the cost of sourcing textiles from anywhere in the world and beyond the U.S. supply). The computable general equilibrium (CGE) model estimation based on the GTAP9 database shows mixed results:

On the one hand, cutting CAFTA-DR members’ textile import tariffs to improve their garment producers’ textile raw material access would significantly improve CAFTA-DR members’ price competitiveness of their apparel exports to the United States and increase the export volume.

However, cutting CAFTA-DR members’ textile import tariffs to improve their garment producers’ textile raw material access would significantly expand their textile imports from non-U.S. sources. This means that CAFTA-DR members’ dependence on the U.S. textile raw material supply may decline further.

Overall, the study’s findings remind us that the debate on expanding U.S. apparel sourcing from CAFTA-DR members should go beyond CAFTA-DR members’ garment production. Instead, more efforts could be made to enhance CAFTA-DR garment producers’ textile raw material access as an effective way to expand the region’s apparel exports to the United States.

Meanwhile, several leading CAFTA-DR apparel exporting countries, including Honduras and Nicaragua, have been engaged in negotiations for free trade agreements with China, Taiwan, and other Asian economies. As the study’s findings indicate, these new trade deals could incentivize CAFTA-DR apparel manufacturers to increase their textile sourcing from Asia. In other words, inaction on the U.S. side and maintaining the status quo still could have significant implications for the future stability of the Western Hemisphere textile and apparel supply chain.

by Sheng Lu

US Apparel Import and Sourcing Trends: Asia vs. Near-shoring from the Western Hemisphere (Updated February 2023)

Trend 1: US fashion companies continue to diversify their sourcing base in 2022

Numerous studies suggest that US fashion companies leverage sourcing diversification and sourcing from countries with large-scale production capacity in response to the shifting business environment. For example, according to the 2022 fashion industry benchmarking study from the US Fashion Industry Association (USFIA), more than half of surveyed US fashion brands and retailers (53%) reported sourcing apparel from over ten countries in 2022, compared with only 37% in 2021. Nearly 40% of respondents plan to source from even more countries and work with more suppliers over the next two years, up from only 17% in 2021.

Trade data confirms the trend. For example, the Herfindahl–Hirschman index (HHI), a commonly-used measurement of market concentration, went down from 0.110 in 2021 to 0.105 in 2022, suggesting that US apparel imports came from even more diverse sources.

Trend 2: Asia as a whole will remain the dominant source of imports

Measured in value, about 73.5% of US apparel imports came from Asia in 2022, up from 72.8% in 2021. Likewise, the CR5 index, measuring the total market shares of the top five suppliers—all Asia-based, i.e., China, Vietnam, Bangladesh, Indonesia, and India, went up from 60.6% in 2021 to 61.1% in 2022. Notably, the CR5 index without China (i.e., the total market shares of Vietnam, Bangladesh, Indonesia, India, and Cambodia) enjoyed even faster growth, from 40.7% in 2021 to 43.7% in 2022.

Additionally, facing growing market uncertainties and weakened consumer demand amid high inflation pressure, US fashion companies may continue to prioritize costs and flexibility in their vendor selection. Studies consistently show that Asia countries still enjoy notable advantages in both areas thanks to their highly integrated regional supply chain, production scale, and efficiency. Thus, US fashion companies are unlikely to reduce their exposure to Asia in the short to medium term despite some worries about the rising geopolitical risks.

Trend 3: US fashion companies’ China sourcing strategy continues to evolve

Several factors affected US apparel sourcing from China negatively in 2022:

One was China’s stringent zero-COVID policy, which led to severe supply chain disruptions, particularly during the fall. As a result, China’s market shares from September to November 2022 declined by 7-9 percentage points compared to the previous year over the same period.
The second factor was the implementation of the Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act (UFLPA) in June 2022, which discouraged US fashion companies from sourcing cotton products from China. For example, only about 10% of US cotton apparel came from China in the fourth quarter of 2022, down from 17% at the beginning of the year and much lower than nearly 27% back in 2018.
The third contributing factor was the US-China trade tensions, including the continuation of Section 301 punitive tariffs. Industry sources indicate that US fashion companies increasingly source from China for relatively higher-value-added items targeting the premium or luxury market segments to offset the additional sourcing costs.

Further, three trends are worth watching regarding China’s future as an apparel sourcing base for US fashion companies:

One is the emergence of the “Made in China for China” strategy, particularly for those companies that view China as a lucrative sales market. Recent studies show that many US fashion companies aim to tailor their product offerings further to meet Chinese consumers’ needs and preferences.
Second is Chinese textile and apparel companies’ growing efforts to invest and build factories overseas. As a result, more and more clothing labeled “Made in Bangladesh” and “Made in Vietnam” could be produced by factories owned by Chinese investors.
Third, China could accelerate its transition from exporting apparel to providing more textile raw materials to other apparel-exporting countries in Asia. Notably, over the past decade, most Asian apparel-exporting countries have become increasingly dependent on China’s textile raw material supply, from yarns and fabrics to various accessories. Moreover, recent regional trade agreements, particularly the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), provide new opportunities for supply chain integration in Asia.

Trend 4: US fashion companies demonstrate a new interest in expanding sourcing from the Western Hemisphere, but key bottlenecks need to be solved

Trade data suggests a mixed picture of near-shoring in 2022. For example, members of the Dominican Republic-Central America Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA-DR) and US-Mexico-Canada Trade Agreement (USMCA) accounted for a declining share of US apparel imports in 2022, measured in quantity and value. While CAFTA-DR and USMCA members showed an increase in their market share of US apparel imports in the fourth quarter of 2022, reaching 10.7% and 3.1%, respectively, this growth was not accompanied by an increase in trade volume. Instead, US apparel imports from these countries decreased by 11% and 15%, respectively, compared to the previous year. CAFTA-DR and USMCA members’ gain in market share was mainly due to a sharper decline in US apparel imports from the rest of the world (i.e., decreased by over 25% in the fourth quarter of 2022).

Trade data also suggests two other bottlenecks preventing more US apparel sourcing from CAFTA-DR and USMCA members. One is the lack of product diversity. For example, the product diversification index consistently shows that US apparel imports from CAFTA-DR members and Mexico concentrated on only a limited category of products, and the problem worsened in 2022. The result explained why US fashion companies often couldn’t move souring orders from Asia to CAFTA-DR and USMCA members.

Another problem is the underutilization of the trade agreement. For example, CAFTA-DR’s utilization rate for US apparel imports consistently went down from its peak of 87% in 2011 to only 74% in 2021. The utilization rate fell to 66.6% in 2022, the lowest since CAFTA-DR fully came into force in 2007. This means that as much as one-third of US apparel imports from CAFTA-DR did NOT claim the agreement’s preferential duty benefits. Thus, regarding how to practically grow US fashion companies’ near-shoring, we could expect more public discussions and debates in the new year.

by Sheng Lu

Further reading: Lu, Sheng (2023). Key trends to watch as US apparel imports hit record high in 2022 but slow in 2023. Just-Style.

What Do Fashion Companies Say about China As an Apparel Sourcing Base? (Updated January 2023)

This study aims to understand western fashion brands and retailers’ latest China apparel sourcing strategies against the evolving business environment. We conducted a content analysis of about 30 leading fashion companies’ public corporate filings (i.e., annual or quarterly financial reports and earnings call transcripts) submitted from June 1, 2022 to December 31, 2022.

The results suggest several themes:

First, China remains one of the most frequently used apparel sourcing destinations. For example:

Express says, “The top five countries from which we sourced our merchandise in 2021 were Vietnam, China, Indonesia, Bangladesh and the Philippines, based on total cost of merchandise purchased.”
According to TJX, “a significant amount of merchandise we offer for sale is made in China.”
Children’s Place says, “We source from a diversified network of vendors, purchasing primarily from Vietnam, Cambodia, Indonesia, Ethiopia, Bangladesh, and China.“
Ralph Lauren adds, “In Fiscal 2022, approximately 97% of our products (by dollar value) were produced outside of the US, primarily in Asia, Europe, and Latin America, with approximately 19% of our products sourced from China and another 19% from Vietnam.

However, many fashion companies have significantly cut their apparel sourcing volume from China. More often, China is no longer the No.1 apparel sourcing destination, overtaken by China’s competitors in Asia, such as Vietnam.

According to Lululemon, “During 2021, approximately 40% of our products were manufactured in Vietnam, 17% in Cambodia, 11% in Sri Lanka, 7% in China (PRC), including 2% in Taiwan, and the remainder in other regions… From a sourcing perspective, when looking at finished goods for the upcoming 2022 fall season, Mainland China represents only 4% to 6% of our total unit volume.”
Levi’s says, “The good thing about our supply chain is we’ve got truly a global footprint. We don’t manufacture a whole lot in China anymore. We’ve been slowly divesting manufacturing out of China, if you will, and kind of playing our chips elsewhere on the global map… Less than 1% of what we’re bringing into this country, into the US, less than 1% of it is coming from China.”
Adidas says, “In 2021, we sourced 91% of the total apparel volume from Asia (2020: 93%). Cambodia is the largest sourcing country, representing 21% of the produced volume (2020: 22%), followed by China with 20% (2020: 20%) and Vietnam with 15% (2020: 21%).”
Victoria’s Secret says, “On China, China is a single-digit percentage of our total inflow of merchandise. We’re not particularly dependent on China at all.”
Nike: “As of May 31, 2022, we were supplied by 279 finished goods apparel contract factories located in 33 countries. For fiscal 2022, contract factories in Vietnam, China and Cambodia manufactured approximately 26%, 20% and 16% of total NIKE Brand apparel, respectively“

Meanwhile, fashion companies still heavily use China as a sourcing base for textile raw materials (such as fabrics). For example:

Columbia Sportswear says it sources most of its finished products from Vietnam, but “a large portion of the raw materials used in our products is sourced by our contract manufacturers in China.”
Likewise, Puma says, “90% of our recycled polyester comes from Vietnam, China, Taiwan (China) and Korea.”
Guess says, “During fiscal 2022, we sourced most of our finished products with partners and suppliers outside the U.S. and we continued to design and purchase fabrics globally, with most coming from China.”
Lulumemon says, “Approximately 48% of the fabric used in our products originated from Taiwan, 19% from China Mainland, 11% from Sri Lanka, and the remainder from other regions.”

Second, Western fashion companies unanimously ranked the COVID situation as one of their top concerns for China. Many companies reported significant sales revenue and profits loss due to China’s draconian “zero-COVID” policy and lockdown measures. For example,

Tapestry says, “For Greater China, sales declined 11% due to lockdowns and business disruption… as a result, we have tempered our fiscal year 2023 outlook based on the expectation for a delayed recovery in China.”
Adidas says, “With Great China… we continue to see several market-specific challenges that are affecting our entire industry. The strict zero COVID-19 policy with nationwide restrictions remains in place amid more than 2000 daily new COVID-19 cases in November. As a consequence, offline traffic is subdued due to the imminent risk of new lockdowns.
Under Armour says, “Ongoing impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and related preventative and protective actions in China…have negatively impacted consumer traffic and demand and may continue to negatively impact our financial results.”
VF Corporation says, “The performance in Greater China…continues to be impacted by widespread rolling COVID lockdowns and restrictions as well as lower consumer spending.”
Puma says, “COVID-19-related restrictions are still impacting business in Greater China, and higher freight rates and raw material prices continue to put pressure on margins.”

Notably, despite China’s most recent COVID policy U-turn, most fashion companies expect market uncertainties to stay in China, at least in the short run, given the surging COVID cases and policy unpredictability. For example:

PVH says, “While we remain optimistic about our business in China, it continues to be a challenging environment as restrictions have once again intensified in the fourth quarter of 2022.”
Nike says, “So we’ve taken a very cautious approach in our guidance to China, given the short-term uncertainties that are there.”
Abercrombie & Fitch also listed China’s COVID situation as one of their top risk factors, “risks and uncertainty related to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, including lockdowns in China, and any other adverse public health developments.”

Third, fashion companies report the negative impacts of US-China trade tensions on their businesses. Also, as the US-China relationship sours, fashion bands and retailers have been actively watching the potential effect of geopolitics. For example,

Express says, “recent geopolitical conditions, including impacts from the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine and increased tensions between China and Taiwan, have all contributed to disruptions and rising costs to global supply chains.”
When assessing the market risk factors, Chico’s FAS says, “our reliance on sourcing from foreign suppliers and significant adverse economic, labor, political or other shifts (including adverse changes in tariffs, taxes or other import regulations, particularly with respect to China, or legislation prohibiting certain imports from China)”
Adidas holds the same view, “In addition, the challenging market environment in China had an adverse impact on the company’s business activities… Additional challenges included the geopolitical situation in China and extended lockdown measures.”
Macy’s adds, “At this time, it is unknown how long US tariffs on Chinese goods will remain in effect or whether additional tariffs will be imposed. Depending upon their duration and implementation, as well as our ability to mitigate their impact, these changes in foreign trade policy and any recently enacted, proposed and future tariffs on products imported by us from China could negatively impact our business, results of operations and liquidity if they seriously disrupt the movement of products through our supply chain or increase their cost.”
Gap Inc. says, “Trade matters may disrupt our supply chain. For example, the current political landscape, including with respect to U.S.-China relations, and recent tariffs and bans imposed by the United States and other countries (such as the Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act) has introduced greater uncertainty with respect to future tax and trade regulations.”
QVC says, “The imposition of any new US tariffs or other restrictions on Chinese imports or the taking of other actions against China in the future, and any responses by China, could impair our ability to meet customer demand and could result in lost sales or an increase in our cost of merchandise, which would have a material adverse impact on our business and results of operations.”

Additionally, NO evidence shows that fashion companies are decoupling with China. Instead, Western fashion companies, especially those with a global presence, still hold an optimistic view of China as a long-term business opportunity. For example:

Inditex, which owns Zara, says, “we remain absolutely confident about our opportunities there (in China) in the medium to long term. Fashion demand continues to be strong in China. For sure it will remain a core market for us for Inditex.”
Ralph Lauren says, “China provides not only the successful blueprint for our elevated ecosystem strategy globally, it also represents one of several geographic long-term opportunities for our brand…We continue to see near and long term brand opportunities in China.”
Lululemon says, “On China, we remain very excited…we remain very, very excited about the potential and the role that will play in quadrupling our international business with Mainland China.”
Nike says, “We have remained committed to investing in Greater China for the long term.”
Adidas says, “On China, clearly, we believe in as a midterm opportunity in China… And then when the market opens up (from COVID), we believe, the western brand is well-positioned in China again, and we can start growing significant in China again.”

Meanwhile, Western fashion companies plan to make more efforts to localize their product offer and cater to the specific needs of Chinese consumers, especially the young generation. The “Made in China for China” strategy could become more popular among Western fashion companies. For example,

PVH says, “So, I think in general, our production in China is heavily oriented to China for China production. I think for us generally speaking, the biggest impact of the shutdowns that we’ve seen across Shanghai and Beijing has really been focused on the impact to our China market.”
Likewise, Levi’s says, “We’re manufacturing somewhere in the neighborhood of 5% of our global production is in China, and most of it staying in China.“
Hanesbrands says, “we’re committed to opening new stores, and that’s continues to go well, despite, the challenges that are there. Looking specifically at Champion, we continued our expansion in China adding new stores in the quarter through our partners.”
H&M says, “we still see China as an important market for us.”
According to Hugo Boss, “Thanks to overall robust local demand, revenues in China in 2021 grew 24% as compared to 2019.”
VF Corporation adds, “China is a significant opportunity…(We are) really pushing decision-making into the regions and providing more and more latitude for local-for-local decision-makings around product, around storytelling, certainly staying within the confines or the framework of the brand strategy, but really giving more freedom and more empowerment to the regions.”

by Sheng Lu

Further reading: Lu, S. (2023). Is China a business opportunity or liability for fashion companies in 2023? Just Style. https://www.just-style.com/features/is-china-a-business-opportunity-or-liability-for-fashion-companies/

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