US-UK Free Trade Agreement: What Does it Mean for the Apparel Industry?

By Victoria Langro (2020 UD Summer Scholar) and Dr. Sheng Lu (advisor)

Key findings:

US-UK bilateral apparel trade

Over the past decade, the US and UK bilateral trade in apparel enjoyed steady growth, reflecting ever closer business ties of fashion companies in the two countries. While US apparel exports still predominantly go to geographically nearby countries such as Mexico and Canada, the UK has emerged to become the single largest export market for “Made in the USA” apparel outside the Western Hemisphere. Similarly, the United States has always been the UK’s single largest export market outside the EU region.

On the other hand, the apparel products that the US and the UK export to each other target different segments of the market. Industry sources indicate that the clothing exported from the US to the UK primarily focuses on the premium market. Garments “Made in the USA” in the UK are mostly carried by premium brands and retailers such as Free People, J. Crew, and Moda Operandi. However, due to a lack of brand power, clothing “Made in the USA” is typically priced 30%-50% lower than similar products locally made in the UK or elsewhere in Western EU, such as France and Italy.

In comparison, approximately 70% of apparel exported from the UK to the US are luxury goods. With a relatively clear-cut market position, luxury and high-end designer UK brands, such as Burberry, Roland Mouret, and Victoria Beckham, can effectively reach out to their target markets.

How Might the US-UK FTA Affect the Bilateral Apparel Trade

According to the released negotiation objectives, both the US and the UK seem to be willing to consider a substantial cut or even a full elimination of the apparel tariff rate as part of the trade deal. Should this happen, fashion companies across the Atlantic could benefit from a proportional reduction of their sourcing cost, resulting in a considerable expansion of the US-UK bilateral apparel trade flows.

On the other hand, to enjoy the preferential duty benefit under a free trade agreement, rules of origin will always be a requirement. Notably, most US trade agreements currently adopt the so-called “yarn-forward” rules of origin. In contrast, most EU-based trade deals adopt a more liberal “fabric-forward” rule.

While it is hard to predict which specific rules of origin the proposed US-UK trade agreement will adopt, it seems the result will have a more significant impact on the US apparel exports to the UK than the other way around. Restrained by the limited domestic supply and high cost, a substantial proportion of US apparel exports contain imported textile raw materials. This means US apparel producers may have to either switch to use more expensive domestic textile inputs or forgo the FTA duty-saving benefits should restrictive rules of origin are adopted. Meanwhile, the UK apparel exports to the US will be less sensitive to the rules of origin in the proposed FTA, as most of these luxury items are already 100% “Made in the UK” to meet customers’ expectations.

Uncertainties associated with the US-UK FTA

The US-UK trade negotiations have to deal with an evolving Brexit. Given the EU’s economic cloud, understandably, some argue that the UK may have to reach a comprehensive trade agreement with the EU before it can consider a trade deal with the US. Additionally, several US domestic politics and policy factors may further slow down the progress of the US-UK trade negotiation, from the US presidential election to the upcoming expiration of the trade promotion authority (TPA).

Further reading: Langro, V., & Lu, S. (2020). US-UK Free Trade Agreement: What Does it Mean for the Apparel Industry? Just-Style.

Five Key Trends in Luxury Goods

Five key trends in Luxury Goods

  • Luxury market remains optimistic with forecast sales set to reach $405 billion USD by 2019.
  • The United States remains the largest luxury goods market in the world, valued at $78 billion USD in 2014.
  • Designer apparel accounted for the most sales of all luxury categories in 2014.
  • Luxury jewelry and timepieces grew by 63% and 42% respectively in the last 5 years.
  • China dropped from 3rd to 4th place in the global rankings, due to the government clampdown on extravagant spending and slowing growth of the economy.

According to a featured story written by Just-Style on the Euromonitor report, global luxury goods sales in 2013 rose 3% year-on-year in value terms and most of this growth came from emerging markets such as China, India, Indonesia and Malaysia. Data shows that luxury spending in the BRIC countries experienced a massive increase of 104% over the last five years, compared to just 18% in developed markets. It is further suggested that BRIC countries will account for more than 35% of projected global sales of luxury goods from 2014-2018. Specifically, India is forecast to grow by a further 86% in constant value terms over the five years to 2018, followed by China at 72%, Brazil at 31% and Russia at 28%.

The outlook for the luxury goods industry over the short to medium term is positive. A rapidly expanding A and B class across sub-Saharan Africa, Latin America and emerging Asia, with incomes 150% to over 200% higher than the average gross incomes of individuals aged 15 and over, is fuelling a new culture of luxury aspiration, leading to an increase in luxury spend.

Source: Euromonitor International; Just-Style

Study Compares Shopping Habits of Luxury Consumers in New York and Shanghai

An interesting study was recently conducted by ContactLab, a UK based consulting agency, which compared shopping habits of luxury consumers (clothing, shoes and fashion accessories) in New York and Shanghai, the fashion hub of the United States and China respectively.

The study was conducted based on a survey of 922 respondents in New York and 975 respondents in Shanghai aged between 25 and 54 years old. According to the study:

  • the Chinese market, seen from Shanghai, confirms its standing as a market offering enormous opportunities to companies that produce high-end products
  • in the last 12 months four out of five individuals in Shanghai have bought at least one luxury item, spending on average around $1,000 (in New York around $500) on their last purchase
  • one out of three users in New York (35%) as well as in Shanghai (31%) chooses to be kept informed through email communications sent by brands
  • two different consumption profiles emerge: fashion buying in China is closely linked to the display of one’s own spending capacity, while the New York consumers show greater affection for brand

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A separate study released by the Fung Group in late 2013 suggests that foreign players largely dominate China’s luxury apparel market.

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